Israeli strike targeting a top Hezbollah military leader takes region to the brink of all-out war

Analysis by Tamara Qiblawi, CNN

(CNN) — Israel says it has killed Hezbollah’s most senior military official, Fu’ad Shukr, in a drone strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, a populous neighborhood that is also the Iran-backed group’s stronghold.

If true, Shukr would be the most high-ranking Hezbollah official to have been assassinated since 2016 when Mustafa Badreddine, the group’s top commander at the time, was killed in Syria.

Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Shukr’s death. He was a senior military adviser to the group’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, considered his right-hand man, and a member of the jihad council. The US government had put out a reward of $5 million for information about him and his whereabouts.

Whatever the fate of Shukr, Wednesday’s strike is the most serious Israeli escalation since confrontations between Hezbollah and Israel began on October 8.

Israel said it served as retaliation for a deadly strike in the Israeli-occupied town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights on Saturday, which Israel blamed on Hezbollah. Hezbollah denied the claim.

The developments have raised the specter of an all-out war between Lebanon and Israel that could extend beyond the borders of both countries.

Nasrallah has repeatedly threatened to hit Tel Aviv in response to any Israeli strike on Beirut, a move that would thrust the two countries, and the region, into uncharted waters.

Unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah has an arsenal of precision guided rockets and bombs with payloads of up to 500 kg.

They are also supported by a region-wide axis of Iran-backed fighters including the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq.

Tehran has indicated that it may act to defend Hezbollah, considered the crown jewel of its network of non-state fighters, warning of “severe consequences” in case of an Israeli escalation in Lebanon.

In an interview with CNN’s Ben Wedeman on Tuesday, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib said he believed any attack on the southern suburb of Beirut would “surely lead to war.”

Neither Hezbollah nor Israel wants an all-out war. Hezbollah may seek to retaliate forcefully, falling short of igniting a larger conflict. Israel will likely also retaliate in kind.

How long this highly calibrated tit-for-tat can go on for before the region spirals into an unprecedented war is anyone’s guess.

The US is trying desperately to prevent this and to clinch a diplomatic solution. Hezbollah has vowed to keep fighting in confrontations until a ceasefire in Gaza, which remains elusive.

Until then, Lebanon, Israel and the wider region remains on the precipice.

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