Federal social distancing guidelines extended until April 30 as Dr. Fauci says 200,000 U.S. deaths possible
WASHINGTON, DC — Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of infectious diseases for the National Institutes of Health, on Sunday projected the possibility of 'millions' of U.S. coronavirus cases and up to 200,000 deaths.
Fauci offered his prognosis as the Trump Administration extended federal social distancing guidelines until April 30 as cases continue to rise in the U.S.
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The initial 15-day period of social distancing urged by the federal government expires Monday and President Trump had expressed interest in relaxing the national guidelines at least in parts of the country less afflicted by the pandemic. But instead he decided to extend them, a tacit acknowledgment he’d been too optimistic.
Trump’s impulse to restore normalcy met a sober reality check from Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert and a member of the White House coronavirus task force.
The federal guidelines recommend against large group gatherings and urge older people and anyone with existing health problems to stay home. People are urged to work at home when possible and avoid restaurants, bars, non-essential travel and shopping trips.
The extension would leave the federal recommendations in place beyond Easter on April 12, by which time Trump had hoped the country and its economy could start to rev up again. Alarmed public-health officials said Easter was sure to be too soon.
The U.S. had more than 137,000 Covid-19 cases reported by late Sunday afternoon, with more than 2,400 deaths.
As to the latest model projections, Fauci cautioned that those are based on "various assumptions" and are "only as good or as accurate as your assumptions."
Fauci noted his previous experience shows that modeling overshoots to show the best and worst case scenario, while the "reality is somewhere in the middle."
"I've never seen a model of the diseases that I've dealt with where the worst case scenario actually came out," Fauci said.
"We're going to have millions of (confirmed) cases," he added. "But I just don't think we really need to make a projection when it's such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people."
