ABC-7 Xtra: Our winter forecast, possibility for snow

EL PASO, Texas (KVIA) -- We're just a few days from the start of winter.

You've probably heard we are in a weather phase called El Niño - a fairly strong one at that. This El Niño  will likely affect our temperatures and how much moisture we could see the next several months.

The climate prediction center has issued the upcoming winter forecast - when it comes to precipitation the model has us with average amounts of moisture typical of our winter. When we flip it to temperatures, equal chances of above, average or below average readings.

Now consider El Niño - we have a fairly strong El Niño in place this winter. El Niño sends the pacific jet stream to the south and spreads it farther east. During the winter this leads to wetter conditions than usual in the southern U.S. When it comes to temperatures, we typically run cooler than normal. So with those parameters in place you would anticipate maybe a better chance for the white stuff. The National Weather Service out at Santa Teresa has been monitoring the upcoming season and believe there could be some excitement. National Weather Service Meteorologist Joe Delizio says the El Paso area could see a little above normal snow. He says it's hard to determine how much but certainly a shot of a few inches or more is possible.

I looked at our past history of strong El Niños going back to 2000. There was 2002 when we had 2" of snow. Then in 2007, 2009 and 2015 we picked up 8 to nearly 10 inches of snow. The key is this - it will be a timing effect; it we have the moisture and cold air in place at the same time, we could see some good snow accumulation. So, here's my prediction, 5 inches this winter.