Hondurans face elections under the shadow of Trump and fraud allegations
By Gonzalo Zegarra
(CNN) — Honduras on Sunday will hold general elections marked by preemptive allegations of voting fraud and an intervention by the United States.
The presidential race has been clouded by uncertainty. Out of the several candidates running to succeed Honduran President Xiomara Castro, three have emerged as the frontrunners, but there is no clear favorite to win.
“We are in an election with a deep political and economic divide,” political scientist Héctor Soto Caballero told CNN. “It highlights the clash between two completely different visions for the country.”
Castro’s term is due to end on January 27, which would mark the first time a left-wing president has finished a term in the country. Her husband, leftist former President Manuel Zelaya, was overthrown in a coup in 2009.
The president is supporting the left-wing candidate of the ruling Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE), lawyer Rixi Moncada, who was the country’s first female defense minister and has promised to continue Castro’s agenda.
While Honduras’ economy has shown moderate growth under Castro, who has maintained her social protection focus and continued the International Monetary Fund’s credit program, the campaign has shifted focus to other polarizing issues.
“What’s at stake isn’t the typical campaign promises, with problems related to health, education and security. LIBRE came in and proposed a discussion that touches the very foundations of the system: democratizing the economy. But it’s not proposing this through dialogue with the business sector; instead, it’s confrontational. This has polarized society,” said analyst Soto.
Also in the running is centrist-liberal Salvador Nasralla, a populist of the Liberal Party. The television star is a former ally of Castro who served as her vice president until last year. He has called for labor reforms and stronger trade relations with the West.
The candidate of the National Party is right-wing businessman and former Tegucigalpa Mayor Nasry “Tito” Asfura. The construction magnate who is running on a free market platform has been endorsed by US President Donald Trump.
Allegations of fraud
Both the ruling party and the opposition have fanned allegations of voting fraud ahead of the election, which critics say undermines the system’s integrity.
The tense climate is putting pressure on the National Electoral Council (CNE), an independent body led by three councilors from each of the country’s major political parties.
Recently, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Honduras Armed Forces, Roosevelt Hernández, asked the council for a copy of the presidential ballot records on election day, something not stipulated by law. CNE president Ana Paola Hall described the move as “interference.”
“The Armed Forces is disobeying the National Electoral Council (CNE),” said Sánchez, who expressed fears that they will use force if the results are not recognized. In that regard, she said the situation would follow “the same script as Nicaragua and Venezuela,” two nations whose electoral processes have been denounced and are not recognized by numerous countries in the region.
Castro said this week on X that her government “upholds and honors” the principles of personal freedom, democracy and accountability, among others.
International organizations have aired their concerns. Americas director at Human Rights Watch Juanita Goebertus warned in a statement that “allegations of possible fraud, aggressive moves by both prosecutors and the army, and political deadlock in the electoral authority are threatening Hondurans’ right to participate in free and fair elections.”
The Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union have also called on the authorities to guarantee the independence of the electoral body.
Eduardo Fuentes, co-director of CNE acknowledged that “there were atypical circumstances and very conflicting positions,” but assured that the institution has met most of its duties.
Honduras’ foreign policy and Washington’s influence
Adding to the tensions is pressure from the US, Honduras’s largest trading partner.
Trump endorsed right-wing candidate Asfura this week, saying on Truth Social they could work together “to combat the narco-communists and provide the necessary aid to the Honduran people.” Trump added that Asfura “stands up for democracy and fights against Maduro,” the Venezuelan president who is facing a months-long pressure campaign from the US.
On Friday, Trump made another post, saying he would pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez of the conservative National Party, who is serving a 45-year prison sentence in the US after being convicted of drug trafficking.
Soto says opposition candidates have been signaling their ideological ties to Washington, while the ruling party has been committed to maintaining a transactional relationship with the US.
“If Nasralla wins, he has openly shown himself to be accommodating to the US leadership. In Asfura’s case, he wouldn’t be much opposition (to the White House); it would be a close influence,” Soto said.
Castro’s ruling party has met many of Washington’s demands on security and migration issues while avoiding direct confrontation. The country is heavily impacted by US immigration measures such as the end of the temporary protected status (TPS) for immigrants, which affected tens of thousands of Hondurans in the US; and remittances, which represent approximately 25% of Honduras’ GDP, according to World Bank data.
Sánchez pointed out that the relationship “could change drastically if the opposition wins,” saying that Trump would not be satisfied if the ruling party stays in power.
Honduras has fewer tools than other countries to confront this asymmetrical relationship with the White House.
“We depend more on the United States and on relations in Central America,” Sánchez said, recalling that Trump has already threatened to impose taxes on remittances and that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not include Honduras in his tour of Central America and the Caribbean.
Another key aspect of Honduras’ foreign policy is its relationship with Venezuela, whose ruling Chavismo movement strongly supported Castro’s husband after his coup. “That built long-standing relations. The government is definitely a close actor, but it has understood that it is a complex, uncomfortable relationship,” Soto said.
Castro was one of the few leaders in the region who recognized Nicolás Maduro’s 2024 election victory claim. Her handpicked successor Moncada has avoided commenting on Venezuela during the campaign, while opposition candidates assured that they would break relations with Caracas if they became president.
According to Soto, if tensions between the US and Venezuela were to escalate into a military conflict, it would lead to an increased US presence in Honduras, where American military personnel are stationed at La Palmerola air base. “From a hemispheric perspective, it would have an impact, at least logistically. If there were a government more aligned with Washington, it would be an opportunity to foster closer ties,” he said.
The White House also faces another challenge in Honduras: China’s growing influence throughout Latin America.
Honduras established diplomatic ties with China in 2023 and severed relations with Taiwan. However, Soto points out that there has been no significant progress toward a free trade agreement since relations were established.
Miami Strategic Intelligence Institute (MSII), a conservative think tank based in Florida, said in a recent report that the election outcomes could “either deepen Beijing’s foothold or recalibrate toward US-aligned positions.”
The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2025 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
CNN’s Michael Rios contributed to this story.
