ABC-7 Storm Track Weather: Storm Chances Return Before a Drier Midweek

The Borderland will see a mix of heat and monsoon moisture this week, with the best chances for showers and thunderstorms shifting around the region. While western areas remain favored for storms tonight, much of the lowlands will turn drier for the middle of the week before moisture potentially increases again next weekend.

Storm chances increase Monday

By this evening, an approaching disturbance moving into the Four Corners region will provide some additional lift. That will help trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms across much of the lowlands, including El Paso and Las Cruces.

Not everyone will see rain, but any storm that develops could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and brief periods of reduced visibility.

Drier conditions return Tuesday through midweek

The weather pattern changes Tuesday as the upper-level high shifts toward the central and southern Plains. That will push much of the deeper monsoonal moisture farther south and west of the Borderland.

As a result, storm chances will drop considerably across the lowlands Tuesday through midweek. A few mountain showers or thunderstorms will remain possible, particularly across western areas, but most locations around El Paso should stay dry.

Temperatures will remain hot, with highs generally 4 to 8 degrees above average. Lowland temperatures will run in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees most days. A slight cool-down is expected Tuesday behind the passing disturbance.

Winds will remain relatively light through the week, generally coming from the west.

Moisture may return next weekend

The forecast becomes more interesting heading into next weekend.

The upper-level high is expected to become more centered over the central and southern Plains. That setup could help pull more monsoonal moisture back toward the Southwest and Borderland.

Forecast models suggest precipitable water values could climb to slightly above normal, with the possibility of additional moisture arriving from a Pacific system. Exactly how much moisture reaches El Paso will depend on the position and strength of the upper-level high.