El Paso’s weather pattern has changed very little over the past several days, which explains the repeated rounds of thunderstorms that have developed across the area each evening. The setup has been driven by an upper-level ridge centered over the southeastern United States and an upper-level trough positioned near California.

That pattern is about to begin shifting, bringing several changes to our rain chances over the coming days.

Thunderstorm chances will remain elevated across most of the area Friday, but the potential for heavier rainfall will begin shifting east of the Rio Grande. While storms will still be possible, the overall setup will be gradually changing.

By Saturday, the upper-level trough will push into the Upper Midwest. Drier air will then begin flowing into the region behind the departing system, causing rain chances to decrease.

That drying trend will become even more pronounced Sunday. With significantly less moisture available, Sunday could end up being a rain-free day for much of the region.

The dry weather may continue into Monday, although the pattern will begin changing again.

Another system is expected to develop over Southern California. This storm will eventually begin drawing moisture back toward the El Paso area, but the return of moisture should be gradual.

As a result, Monday is currently expected to remain relatively dry.

The biggest change in the forecast appears to arrive Tuesday.

By then, the region will once again find itself with high pressure to the east and an low pressure to the west. The circulation around these two features will help pull abundant moisture northward from Mexico.

That moisture could lead to a much wetter stretch from Tuesday through Thursday.