What does the StormTrack Weather team mean when they say “chance for storms”?
It’s a question the Stormtrack Weather team hears often. What is today’s chance for rain? it’s called the P-O-P, but what exactly does that mean?
Stephanie Lechuga, an east El Paso resident said she hasn’t seen very much rain on her side of town this summer. ” In El Paso you never know, it could be like 20 percent or 10 percent”,so you think you’re not going to get rain but it starts pouring.” Lechuga said.
If today’s chance for rain is 40 percent, does that mean it will rain 40 percent of the time or over 40 percent of the area? The answer is neither. Meteorologist John Fausett with The National Weather Service of El Paso said “This time of year it’s based on coverage, not really probability”.
Elizabeth Lopez tells ABC-7 she lives in west El Paso and unlike Lechuga she believes west El Paso has seen a lot of rain this summer. “On the west we’ve been seeing a lot of rain but I would expect to see it more often than not, but there is no rule of thumb here”. Lopez said.
The Stormtrack Weather team will use phrases like “chance of showers” or “scattered storms” to describe the forecast. The weather team associates these words with a P-O-P.
-0-20% “Slight chance” and “Widely scattered”
-30-50% “Chance” and “Scattered”
-60-70% “Likely” and “Numerous”
-80-100% Definitive types of precipitation such as rain, snow or showers.
One challenge in understanding what a P-O-P means, is not knowing the size of the forecast zone.The National Weather Service provides forecast for lowland zones and a mountain zones, rain chances are usually higher along the area mountains.
Meteorologist David Novlan with the National Weather Service El Paso said “Tonight we are looking at 30 percent, anywhere in the El Paso area at any point will have a 3 in 10 chance in having rain”.
The P-O-P is typically expressed as a percent in the weather forecast. It does not predict when, where or how much rain will fall.
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