Nation-wide doctor shortage predictions confirmed by recent study

The Association of American Medical Colleges ( AAMC ) has published data projecting a shortage of 122,000 physicians by 2032.

IHS Markit is a global information company that completed the 5th annual study titled The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2017 to 2032, 2019 update.

According to the study, the main driver of increasing demand is population growth and an older demographic overall.

The United States is expected to add over 30 million in population or an increase of 10% and a 48% increase of people over 65.

Because seniors have much higher per capita consumption of healthcare compared to younger generations, the demand for pediatric services will grow very quickly in the next 13 years.

One-third of all doctors will also be older than 65 in the next ten years, and retirement could have a major impact on available physicians.

A major part of the study focused on emerging healthcare trends to help improve the overall population health.

The study shows even with reducing obesity and tobacco use, providing better care coordination, and reducing unnecessary hospitalizations will only reduce demand for physicians by 1% over the next decade.

The shortage will hit rural areas more acutely, the lack of doctors will be felt everywhere.

To combat the shortage the bipartisan Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act of 2019 has been introduced to Congress.

The bill would allow 3000 more residency positions each year over the next 5.

This is important because a cap on the number of students in residency programs has been capped since 1996.

This creates a bottleneck for medical students looking to complete their residency and allows existing teaching hospitals from receiving Medicare-support.