ABC-7 StormTrack Weather – Mostly dry tonight as storm chances increase this week

El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley will stay mostly dry tonight as a strong ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the region.

The best storm chances today will remain west of the region, with scattered storms possible across the Gila and isolated activity across the Sacramento Mountains and areas west of the Continental Divide. Any storms that do develop could produce gusty winds up to 30 mph and brief heavy downpours.

For El Paso and Las Cruces, rain chances remain very low at 0-10% today. However, outflow from storms over the Gila could spark a few showers farther east this evening, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley.

Storm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday

The ridge will stretch across the southern United States Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper-level trough moves through the Midwest. Tuesday could bring a better chance for thunderstorms as instability increases.

That added instability could lead to stronger storms and higher wind gust potential, with storm chances becoming more widespread across the region.

By Wednesday and Thursday, another trough moving in from the Plains will provide additional moisture and lift. The upper-level high will settle over the Desert Southwest, allowing storms to move generally from north to south.

That setup can sometimes bring strong winds down the Rio Grande Valley and into the Tularosa Basin, so wind will be an important threat to watch as we get into the middle of the week.

Above-normal temperatures continue

Despite increasing storm chances, temperatures will remain above average through much of the week, running about 4 to 8 degrees warmer than normal.

Highs across the El Paso lowlands will generally remain in the 90s, while some locations farther down the Rio Grande Valley could approach 100 degrees through the weekend.