ABC-7 First Alert: Tropical Moisture Set to Bring Heavy Rain, Flooding Threat to the Borderland
EL PASO, Texas (ABC-7) — A major surge of tropical moisture is headed toward the Borderland this week, setting the stage for several days of widespread rain and thunderstorms, with the greatest concerns coming from heavy rainfall, flash flooding and gusty winds.
Two weather systems will play a major role in our weather pattern: an upper-level low currently over northern California and Hurricane Polo, which is spinning off the coast of Baja California. The remnants of Polo will be pulled northeastward into Sonora and Chihuahua and eventually toward the El Paso area Tuesday.
Heavy rain and flash flooding become the biggest concern
The rain threat will continue tonight through Wednesday morning, with widespread rainfall expected across the Borderland.
Forecast guidance indicates 1 to 2 inches of rain could fall across much of the region, while stronger thunderstorms and repeated rounds of rain could produce localized totals of 3 to 4 inches or more.
The biggest concern is that soils across the region are already saturated following recent heavy rainfall. That means additional rain could produce rapid runoff and flash flooding, especially in areas that have already received significant rainfall.
Tuesday is expected to be the most concerning day for flooding, with a Moderate Risk of flash flooding across much of the area.
Gusty winds possible Tuesday
Heavy rain won't be the only weather concern.
As the tropical system and upper-level low move through the region Tuesday, winds could become noticeably stronger, especially Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Parts of El Paso, Hudspeth and Otero counties could see strong southerly winds ahead of the storm system, with gusts potentially reaching 30 to 40 mph.
Thunderstorms could also produce locally stronger wind gusts.
Rain gradually ends Wednesday
The upper-level low is expected to move across central New Mexico Wednesday, allowing the tropical remnants to weaken and dissipate.
Showers and thunderstorms should gradually decrease Wednesday morning, with a drier pattern developing by Wednesday afternoon as drier air moves into the region.
Once the system moves out, the Borderland could see a much quieter start to October.
