Severe thunderstorms with dangerous winds, isolated tornadoes threaten South and Midwest this weekend

By CNN Meteorologist Chris Dolce, CNN

(CNN) — Thunderstorms erupting in the South and Midwest to kick off the weekend could turn severe and produce dangerous winds, a few tornadoes and heavy rain.

It’s not been a particularly active fall so far, but the return of severe thunderstorms is a reminder this season, and occasionally winter, can have a similar clash of the weather ingredients that generate spring’s powerful storms.

Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma and northern Louisiana up to Arkansas and parts of the lower and mid-Mississippi valleys have the greatest chance to see severe storms Saturday afternoon into the night.

Strong winds capable of knocking out power and damaging or uprooting trees are the biggest threat, though there’s enough spin in the atmosphere to generate isolated tornadoes that can form quickly with little advance warning. Large hail, from quarter-size to possibly as large as golf balls, could also accompany a few of the storms.

Little Rock, Arkansas; Memphis, Tennessee; Shreveport, Louisiana; and Paducah, Kentucky, are some of the cities where people should stay alert for severe weather warnings while tackling weekend plans.

Heavy rain could also trigger flash flooding in spots, though much of the region is so dry, the downpours are needed. Moderate to severe drought covers a large chunk of the lower and mid-Mississippi valleys as well as the Ozarks of southern Missouri and northeast Arkansas.

An unusually warm Gulf is fueling this threat

Fall typically brings to mind cool, crisp air and blue skies, but the United States is seeing unusually warm air stream northward ahead of a cold front in the central part of the country. High temperatures Saturday are predicted to be anywhere from 10 to 20 degrees above average from Texas to the Ohio Valley, with 80s as far north as Indiana and Ohio.

Columbus, Ohio, could approach its daily record high of 83 degrees Saturday, while San Antonio, Texas, flirts with a daily record of 93 degrees.

Storm systems become more energetic in the fall and winter as the jet stream — a narrow band of strong winds high in the atmosphere where commercial planes fly — strengthens and drops south into the US. Storms riding the jet stream can turn severe anytime southerly winds pull up warm, humid air from the Gulf. Gulf waters are unusually warm right now, adding an extra punch of moisture to this weekend’s setup.

The South and, occasionally, lower parts of the Midwest like the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys tend to be the regions most affected by severe thunderstorms in fall and winter. In some cases, a major winter storm will dump heavy snow in northern areas, while the South contends with a springlike severe storm threat from the same system.

And with the loss of daylight in those months, there is a greater chance the threat of dangerous storms carries into the evening and overnight hours. Nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly than daytime ones, a 2022 study found.

Colder weather is coming in the weeks and months ahead, but severe storms will no doubt make an appearance at times, so it’s important to stay vigilant and have a preparedness plan in place year-round.

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