ABC-7 StormTrack Weather: Storm chances remain isolated before a wetter, stormier pattern develops
The Borderland will stay warm and mostly dry through the middle of the week, but moisture is gradually increasing across the region, bringing better chances for thunderstorms—especially toward Thursday.
Leftover clouds from overnight storms across southwestern New Mexico have mostly dissipated, with the exception of some activity associated with a disturbance near the Gila Region. Most of today's thunderstorms have been focused over the Sacramento Mountains, although a few storms are developing across the Bootheel and other desert mountain ranges.
Storms over the Sacramento Mountains have remained relatively small but have been slow-moving and anchored to the terrain. Their intensity is expected to decrease through the afternoon and evening.
For the El Paso area, storm chances will remain fairly isolated, with the best opportunities generally east of the Rio Grande, particularly across southern Otero County and near higher terrain in Hudspeth County. Most locations in the lowlands will remain dry.
More moisture arrives Wednesday
Moisture will continue to increase Wednesday as atmospheric humidity builds across the region.
Despite the added moisture, a strengthening upper-level ridge will limit overall storm development. Still, isolated thunderstorms will be possible, with the best chances across southern areas and especially the Bootheel.
For El Paso, this means another day where most neighborhoods remain dry, but a few storms could develop nearby, particularly east and south of the city.
Thursday brings a better chance for storms
The biggest change in the forecast arrives Thursday, when moisture continues to move northward across the region.
An upper-level trough over the western United States is expected to push against the ridge, while cooler air aloft and increasing upper-level divergence could help support more widespread thunderstorm development.
As a result, storm coverage is expected to increase Thursday, with southwestern New Mexico becoming the favored area for storms during the evening.
Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning, although coverage will remain uneven.
Storm chances shift this weekend
The subtropical ridge will continue to play a major role in determining where storms develop through the weekend.
Southwestern New Mexico and Arizona are expected to become more favored for thunderstorms as the ridge rebuilds over the region. Moisture will remain trapped underneath the ridge, which could continue to provide fuel for isolated storms.
However, warmer temperatures aloft will make thunderstorm development more difficult east of the Continental Divide.
