Health officials project San Francisco will run out of ICU beds in 17 days

Health officials in San Francisco project intensive care unit (ICU) capacity will run out by December 27 if Covid-19 numbers continue to climb as fast as they are now.

That is “in just 17 days,” Health Director Dr. Grant Colfax said Wednesday. “And that’s if things don’t even get worse, but they very well may.”

There are 123 Covid-19 patients across San Francisco, Colfax said, a number higher than ever before that shows “no signs of going down.” Thirty of those patients are in intensive care units.

“This number is climbing, and climbing rapidly. Now, not only by the day, but by the hour.”

The city is experiencing by far its worst surge to date, Colfax said, adding the virus is “everywhere in our city right now.”

“And in so many neighborhoods where it hasn’t taken hold before,” Colfax said. “Even lower-risk activities now carry substantial risk because there’s more virus out there than ever before.”

And the surge has also been fueled by the gatherings that took place over the Thanksgiving holiday. Since then, at least 167 people are testing positive for the virus daily, and the average case rate per 100,000 has skyrocketed since Thanksgiving week — from 15 to 30.

“The reality is unfortunately proving to be as harsh as we expected,” Colfax said.

Last week, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced a strict regional stay-at-home order that would go into effect 48 hours after hospital ICU capacity drops below 15% in one of five regions the state is divided into: Northern California, Bay Area, Greater Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley and Southern California.

But several Bay Area governments decided not to wait for that threshold and implemented the order — among them, San Francisco. The order took effect Sunday, San Francisco officials announced, and is expected to stay in effect through January 4.

“We will lift it once our hospital capacity is stable, and case rates improve for 3 weeks,” officials said.

Under the order, gatherings with people outside a single household are not allowed, restaurants can only operate takeout and delivery services and some businesses, like hair and nail salons, must close.

“To be blunt, we have one chance to turn this serious surge around and that chance is right now,” Colfax said Wednesday. “But out window is narrowing and closing fast.”