El Niño is supercharging Pacific storms. A new hurricane threat for Hawaii and monstrous Polo are further proof
By Meteorologists Mary Gilbert, Chris Dolce, CNN
(CNN) — A prolific Pacific hurricane season fueled by a super El Niño is showing no signs of slowing down with another tropical threat taking shape for Hawaii just a day after Hurricane Polo exploded into a Category 5 monster off of Mexico’s coast.
El Niño has been supercharging this year’s Pacific hurricane season with extremely warm water that’s been like rocket fuel for storms and minimal storm-killing wind shear. The extra helping hand from El Niño is on top of already warmer-than-normal oceans as the planet heats up from fossil fuel pollution.
Eighteen named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — have roamed the eastern and central Pacific so far and there are two full months of the season left to go. Sixteen originated in the eastern Pacific basin, which typically sees up to 15 storms in an entire season.
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Later this week, Hawaii will face its third close brush with a hurricane this season, and it could be the strongest yet: A new tropical depression is poised to strengthen and approach the island chain by the weekend.
It could be the first time that three hurricanes have come within 100 miles of Hawaii’s main islands in a single season since at least the 1950s.
Yet another hurricane threatens to inundate Hawaii
Tropical Depression 15-E was about 400 miles south-southeast of the state’s Big Island as of late Tuesday night, local time, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s set to pass close to the Big Island as a hurricane Saturday, bringing extreme rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf.
“Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible” again on portions of the Big Island and Maui, the National Hurricane Center warned Tuesday night.
Tropical alerts could be issued later today for parts of the state.
The depression is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nolo sometime Wednesday and reach hurricane strength by Thursday night, local time.
It’s expected to make its closest approach to the Big Island Saturday night as a Category 3 major hurricane. Its center could be only 50 miles from the Big Island’s southern shoreline at the time.
Hurricane Lala took a similarly close track to the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 storm and unleashed catastrophic flooding there. On the other side of the state, Hurricane Lowell delivered a blow to Kauai and Niihau in early September as a Category 2 storm.
Nolo’s close pass as a potential major hurricane means damaging winds are a considerable threat. Tropical storm-force winds stronger than 40 mph are likely and hurricane-force winds stronger than 75 mph are possible on the Big Island’s south side Friday through at least Saturday. Stronger gusts are likely in the island’s high elevations.
A flood threat will build well ahead of the system’s closest approach. Rain will begin later Wednesday on the Big Island and spread to reach Maui, Lanai and Molokai later Thursday or early Friday.
Ten to 15 inches of rain are possible over the Big Island through Sunday with up to 35 inches in the steepest terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Mountains force air to rush upwards, wringing out more moisture that falls as torrential rain. Lala dumped more than 40 inches of rain on parts the Big Island and the results were catastrophic.
In Maui, 5 to 10 inches are possible with isolated amounts up to 20 inches. About 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected elsewhere on the main islands.
Offshore, dangerous seas will build and reach their peak Friday and Saturday. Rough conditions will likely last through the weekend and into next week even as the hurricane starts to track west away from the island Sunday night into Monday.
Ferocious Hurricane Polo
Earlier this week, Hurricane Polo showed exactly what the extremely warm Pacific is capable of when it exploded from a tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.
That’s called extreme rapid intensification, a wind increase of 58 mph or more in 24 hours. Polo met that criteria and then some, with a 110-mph increase in its sustained winds from Monday to Tuesday morning.
This rate of rapid intensification is “truly remarkable,” the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning, and is among the fastest on record in the Eastern Pacific.
Hurricane Patricia set the Eastern Pacific 24-hour intensification record in 2015 when its winds jumped 120 mph. Polo is comparable to 2023’s Hurricane Otis, which had a wind increase of 105 mph in 21 hours before it devastated Acapulco, Mexico. More hurricanes are rapidly intensifying as Earth and its oceans warm from fossil fuel pollution.
Polo’s winds topped out at 180 mph on Tuesday afternoon, tying a pair of super typhoons in the West Pacific as the strongest storms on the planet so far this year.
As of Wednesday morning, Polo was a very powerful Category 4 hurricane about 200 miles offshore of southern Mexico’s state of Guerrero.
Polo is not expected to make landfall there, but it is bringing rain and some tropical storm-force winds to parts of the coast. Heavy rain is Polo’s most significant threat and could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides in this region.
Rainfall totals in coastal Guerrero and Michoacán states could reach 3 to 6 inches, with locally up to 8 inches in spots through Thursday. Coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco states could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain.
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