Trump promised ‘economic D-Day’ for Iran. So far, actions have come in drips

By Jennifer Hansler, CNN

(CNN) — US Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week instructed diplomats around the world to tell their host countries they must “systematically identify and sever” ties to Iran, and those with branches of Iranian banks must shut them down immediately.

On Friday, the US Treasury Department announced it was targeting a Turkish bank and its subsidiaries that allegedly serve as “critical financial lifelines” to Iran.

They marked the latest sanctions under “Operation Economic Outcast,” a pressure campaign that President Donald Trump had previewed as “economic D-Day” for Iran.

However, rather than a sweeping, singular assault, the measures have come in drips in the nearly two weeks since it was announced.

Meanwhile, there remains deep skepticism from experts and diplomats that the US will take meaningful action against key Iranian partners like China. They also continue to question the impact the sanctions will have on Tehran, which has withstood decades of economic pressure.

“The Iranians have been handling and evading sanctions for half a century for bloody sake, they can take pretty much anything thrown at them,” a regional source said.

Experts have noted that the impact of sanctions takes time. A former senior State Department official noted that signs of economic strain in Iran, like long gas lines or empty grocery shelves, seem to be “part of what has been happening, and not something new.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has disputed the notion that sanctions don’t work and insisted that the US has “never engaged… at this level of intensity.”

Last week, the Treasury Department proposed cutting off the UAE branches of Banque Misr, Egypt’s second largest bank, from the US financial market. It also sanctioned the general manager of the Dubai branch of Bank Melli, Iran’s biggest bank.

Friday’s sanctions hit Turkey’s Golden Global Bank and its subsidiaries, which Treasury claims have “facilitated tens of millions of dollars’ worth of transactions,” including in oil revenues from China, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force.”

Daniel Tannebaum, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said “the significance isn’t so much in the scale of the bank.” Rather, “it shows, especially in the run-up to the Trump-Xi bilat in a couple weeks, that there’s other countries, including allies… that the US is willing to make a move at.”

Experts and diplomats who spoke with CNN have cast doubts that the administration will make such a move at China.

“If they go at China, it will be very carefully orchestrated, where there are no surprises,” said Tannebaum, who is also a partner at management consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

Trump administration officials, meanwhile, have suggested that Beijing is being more cooperative than it may seem.

“We have more in common with the Chinese on Iran than we disagree with them on,” Bessent said at an event on the sidelines of the G20 Finance Ministers meeting this week.

There is also skepticism that the US will take significant actions against Pakistan or Oman, who also have trade ties with Iran, given their roles in the diplomacy around the war.

“I think they are trying to be balanced and careful. That’s why they’re targeting small banks now and hoping to freak out the others and again trying to be careful not to jeopardize any hope for the peace deal,” another regional source said.

Bessent said this week that the US has seen “great support around the world” for their latest economic campaign.

“We are speaking to our allies here, who have all come forward, and we have had a great show of support,” he said at the G20.

One diplomatic source described discussions with their country so far as being in the explanatory phase.

In the cable sent earlier this week, Rubio told diplomats to inform their host countries about “Operation Economic Outcast.” For embassies in places like London and Muscat, the diplomats were instructed to stress the imperative that “countries take immediate action to shutter all branches of Iranian banks located in their jurisdictions.”

“The bank branches must go dark – immediately,” said the diplomatic cable, which was seen by CNN.

CNN’s Kylie Atwood contributed reporting.

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