Bond market takes a breather after surprise move by Treasury Department
By John Towfighi, CNN
New York (CNN) — The Treasury Department made a surprise move Wednesday after bond yields hit their highest levels in almost two decades, doubling its planned purchases of longer-term bonds and easing pressure on the market.
Bonds rallied, driving yields lower, after the announcement, providing some relief after a sell-off earlier this week sent yields around the globe to their highest levels in years. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Bond yields help set interest rates across the economy. Yields have surged this year, raising borrowing costs for consumers and exacerbating concerns about affordability. A steep rise in yields can make mortgages, auto loans and business loans more expensive and restrict economic activity.
The Treasury Department said it will at least double the size of buybacks from September to early November, focusing on longer-dated bonds from 10-year to 30-year Treasuries, according to a statement.
The 30-year yield dropped nine basis points to 5.2% after the announcement, providing short-term reprieve. The drop comes one day after the 30-year yield rose above 5.3%, hitting its highest level since 2007.
Buybacks from the Treasury Department are a standard operation in bond markets, but the timing of the announcement after a major sell-off highlights the Trump administration’s sensitivity to the rise in yields.
“This is probably more about the signal the administration wants to send to the market,” Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo Markets, said in a note.
“I see it as a very strong sign that the Treasury has decided higher US yields are unacceptable, and that the recent blowout in the long end is undesirable and needs counteracting,” Wilson said.
Investors are also awaiting an auction on Wednesday for $16 billion of 20-year Treasury bonds. The buyback announcement helped ease jitters in the bond market ahead of the auction this afternoon. An auction for 30-year bonds earlier this month resulted in the highest yield since 2001.
Short-term relief
The 10-year yield dropped six basis points to 4.65% after the Treasury Department announcement. The 10-year yield, which influences mortgage rates, had hit 4.74% on Tuesday, near the highest level of President Donald Trump’s second term.
The market reaction at least temporarily eases the stress of bond yields surging higher, but it remains to be seen how the market responds in coming days. Despite the drop, the 30-year yield is still trading on the cusp of its highest levels in 19 years.
Yields have climbed this year as investors digest a range of concerns from inflation sparked by the Iran war, to persistent government deficits, to uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s outlook. A wave of debt issuance from companies building out AI infrastructure has also increased bond supply, creating more competition for investor demand.
Increased buybacks from the Treasury Department can provide short-term relief, analysts noted, but it doesn’t change the outlook for those other factors that have pushed yields higher.
“The key drivers behind rising yields … remain in place,” Tony Miano, global fixed income analyst at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said in an email. “Until investors gain greater clarity on those issues, risks to long-term Treasury yields remain skewed to the upside.”
Bessent’s toolbox
The buyback announcement also comes after the Treasury Department earlier this month intervened in currency markets to boost the Japanese yen. There were concerns that a weak yen could prompt Japan to sell its US assets like Treasuries to boost its own currency, which gave the Treasury incentive to intervene, analysts noted.
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries fell in June, led by a drop in Japan’s holdings, according to Treasury Department data released on Monday.
The currency intervention and increase in long-term bond buybacks are two examples of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flexing the tools at the Treasury to try and help manage the rise in bond yields.
“Bessent is again showing his tactical skill as an activist Treasury secretary,” Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI, said in a note. “But we are skeptical that this operation will have a material impact over any more extended period.”
“The operation changes almost nothing in terms of the fundamentals, in particular the unchanged need to finance the tidal wave of hyperscaler debt in addition to very large government deficits,” Guha added.
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