Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find
CNN
By Jennifer Agiesta, Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu, CNN
(CNN) — The critical Senate contests in both Maine and Michigan feature tight races with no clear leader, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. But voters in the two states see their choices through two very different lenses.
In Maine, the race centers more on likely voters’ broadly negative views of incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and President Donald Trump than on their impressions of the late-breaking Democratic nominee, Troy Jackson. Many voters are still getting to know Jackson after he replaced Graham Platner following allegations of sexual assault that Platner has denied.
Michigan voters are more focused on the candidates’ issue positions amid an open-seat campaign featuring one of the most progressive Democratic candidates of this cycle in Abdul El-Sayed against former GOP congressman Mike Rogers.
Fifty percent of voters say El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, compared with 42% who say that Rogers is too conservative. Roughly two-thirds – including broad majorities of both candidates’ supporters – think El-Sayed would try to change things a lot in Washington, while just 20% say the same of Rogers.
But both Collins and Rogers face political headwinds driven by economic concerns and negativity toward Trump. The people most likely to vote in each state say that they would prefer to see Democrats win control of the Senate after this fall’s midterm elections.
Trump is deeply unpopular in both Maine and Michigan, with about two-thirds of voters in each state disapproving of his performance as president. The share of voters who say they are dissatisfied or angry with the way things are going in the country far outpaces the share who are satisfied or enthusiastic.
The economy and cost of living is far and away the top issue in each state, and by a better than two-to-one margin, likely voters say they are worse off rather than better off compared with two years ago. Most also view the increased tariffs on Canadian goods with skepticism: less than 15% think the tariffs are a good thing and about two-thirds in each state – both of which border Canada – view the tariffs negatively.
Even among likely voters, Democrats in both states are far more motivated to vote than their Republican counterparts, mirroring a trend seen nationwide in this year’s midterm polling. Among the most motivated voters, Democrats lead handily in both states.
About a quarter of likely voters in Michigan say they’re persuadable
In Michigan, likely voters split about evenly between El-Sayed at 47% and Rogers at 44%, a margin that lands within the poll’s margin of sampling error. Rogers has broadly unified Republican likely voters in the state: 97% back him. Among Democrats, 90% support El-Sayed, while just 3% say they back Rogers. Independents break toward El-Sayed, 48% to 32%, with about one in five not supporting either candidate.
About a quarter of Michigan likely voters overall haven’t yet firmly decided who they will support in the race for Senate. That number hits 40% among Black voters and voters younger than 35, and it stands at 36% among independents who are likely to vote.
Most voters who have picked a side say their vote is more in favor of their chosen candidate than against his opponent, but there is more negative sentiment among Rogers’ backers. About 4 in 10 who support Rogers say their vote is against El-Sayed while 31% backing El-Sayed say their vote is an anti-Rogers one.
Nearly half of Michigan likely voters say that the candidate’s positions on the issues are their top factor in deciding whom to support, while fewer, 31%, say that partisan control of the Senate is their top consideration and 22% cite the candidates’ character and experience.
Although El-Sayed’s positions on Israel were a point of contention in the Democratic primary, a scant 3% of likely voters statewide say US policy toward Israel is the top issue in deciding their vote. Most, 54%, say the US is doing too much to help Israel.
El-Sayed’s backing is strongest among younger voters. He carries a majority of likely voters younger than 45 while trailing among those 45 and older. He holds a 9-point lead among women while men split more evenly, 48% for Rogers to 44% for El-Sayed. White voters in the state break narrowly in Rogers’ favor, while Black voters broadly back El-Sayed, 77% to 10%, with about 14% opting for neither.
El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, performed strongest in the August primary in counties with significant Black populations. The new poll suggests many Black voters haven’t yet formed opinions on El-Sayed: 66% say they have a favorable view, 2% an unfavorable one, and 32% aren’t sure yet.
Roughly one in five say they don’t have an opinion of each candidate. El-Sayed’s favorability is an even split, 40% on each side. Views of Rogers break negative, 42% unfavorable to 35% favorable.
In the race to replace Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, current Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads the Republican Rep. John James 50% to 41%.
National politics shape the Maine Senate race
In Maine, 48% of likely voters are currently backing Jackson with 45% supporting Collins. That’s inside the survey’s margin of sampling error and a considerably tighter race than the state’s gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles, 52% to 39%.
Roughly 18% of likely voters say they could change their mind about whom they support for Senate, or that they haven’t yet picked a candidate.
Jackson’s supporters stand out from other voters in either state polled for their close focus on the national implications of the race. A 53% majority say that party control of the Senate is the top consideration in their vote, and nearly half cite the state of US democracy as their top issue.
Roughly 7 in 10 of Jackson’s backers say they’d be casting their ballot more out of opposition to Collins than support for him, while only a quarter of Collins backers are motivated by their opposition to Jackson.
That may in part reflect Collins’ status as a better-known quantity. While likely voters’ impressions of both candidates are negative on balance, nearly a quarter don’t yet have an opinion of Jackson, while just 8% haven’t formed an opinion on Collins.
And while Maine voters in both parties largely say they’re satisfied with their choice of candidates in the race, nearly 4 in 10 Democratic-aligned voters, compared with about a quarter of those who side with the GOP, say they’re unhappy.
Maine voters are about equally likely to call Jackson too liberal and Collins too conservative – and most reject both characterizations. But Jackson is seen as relatively likely to shake things up in Washington, with 42% saying he’d try to change things a lot if elected, compared with just 14% who think Collins would do so if given another term.
This is the first time Collins has stood for reelection since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, an outcome owing in part to her support for the confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Four years later, almost two-thirds of Maine voters say they feel negatively about the 2022 Dobbs ruling, including about half saying it makes them feel angry. Those who remain angry are largely backing Jackson, while those who feel less strongly are largely behind Collins.
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The CNN polls of Maine and Michigan likely voters were conducted online and by phone August 31-September 6, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 880 likely voters in Maine have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points; it is 4.1 points among the 843 likely voters in Michigan.
