New poll shows Kamala Harris surging in Iowa

California Sen. Kamala Harris is surging in Iowa, according to a new poll in the early caucus state.

Former Vice President Joe Biden still leads the Democratic field in a poll taken after last week’s debates from Suffolk University and USA Today, with 24% support. But Biden is followed by Harris (16%) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (13%).

In a CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted in early June, Biden was also at 24% support among likely caucusgoers, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16%, Warren at 15%, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 14%, and Harris at 7%. CNN on Tuesday released a national poll conducted with SSRS finding Harris increasing in her share of the vote, while Biden loses support.

But Suffolk’s new poll suggests a decrease in support for Sanders and Buttigieg, at 9% and 6%, respectively. These differences could be because the polls weren’t conducted by the same pollster and sponsor, but it’s more likely that Harris is experiencing a bump in support after her performance in last week’s debates, while Buttigieg and Sanders saw slight decreases.

Among those likely Democratic caucusgoers who watched both nights of the debate, half said Harris did “better than expected,” followed by former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro (29%) and Buttigieg (22%).

On the other side, those who watched both nights said Biden did “worse than expected” (41%), as did Sanders (23%), and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke (16%).

These results don’t necessarily reflect solid preferences among Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa, with 60% of likely Democratic attendees saying they might change their mind on who to vote for before the caucuses.

Those who didn’t choose Biden as their first or second choice said it was because they didn’t have enough information/hadn’t made up their mind (15%) or because of his age (15%).

As other polls have found nationally, health care is the most important issue that would affect vote (29%) followed by climate change (18%). Similarly, when asked to rate the importance of a nominee’s support for certain issues, taxing the very wealthy comes out on top (64% call it very important), followed by Medicare for all (57%). Fewer prioritized impeaching President Donald Trump (41% very important), free higher education (39%) or breaking up big tech companies (26%).

Three-in-five likely Democratic caucus participants said it was more important to nominate a candidate who can defeat Trump over someone who reflects their priorities (34% preferred a candidate who reflects their priorities), another finding similar to the national population.

The USA Today/Suffolk University poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa was conducted by telephone June 28 through July 1 among a random sample of 500 likely caucus participants. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.