A Republican in a district Kamala Harris won could give Democrats a run for their money

By Katherine Koretski, CNN

(CNN) — Mike Lawler is one of the most vulnerable Republicans in Congress this election cycle, one of only three representing a district that Kamala Harris won in 2024.

But in a year when political headwinds seem to be blowing in Democrats’ favor, combat veteran and Biden administration alum Cait Conley may still be facing an uphill battle to oust the two-term incumbent from his seat in New York’s Hudson Valley.

While active registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 17th District by more than 70,000, according to the New York State Board of Elections, Lawler has shown crossover appeal as he has sought to highlight his bipartisan bona fides and willingness to break with President Donald Trump. That includes several endorsements from across the aisle, including Maine Rep. Jared Golden and local Democratic politicians.

Senior Republicans feel confident in Lawler’s ability to maintain his seat, and House GOP leaders believe that he is one of their strongest battleground candidates and can defy the national environment.

In a sign of the high stakes, the showdown has become one of the most expensive House races in the country, with Republicans and Democrats funneling more than $40 million cumulatively into ads tying Lawler to Trump and scrutinizing Conley’s connections to AI companies.

But Conley still believes she can flip the seat, which could prove consequential as Democrats look to retake the House for Trump’s final two years in power.

“The energy that we are feeling in every corner of this district is incredible,” she told CNN during a campaign event on Sunday. “Where people are recognizing the stakes of this November and how this is a fight for working families who are getting screwed by the policies of this administration, enabled by Mike Lawler.”

‘A long and deep history of really aggressive retail politics’

Conley, however, is still introducing herself to voters as a first-time candidate, while Lawler benefits from nearly four years of incumbency and the ensuing name recognition.

In recent months, she’s tried to excite voters by campaigning with former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and highlighting endorsements from former Rep. Gabby Giffords and New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will also join her on the campaign trail in the coming weeks, according to Jeffries spokesperson Justin Chermol.

National Democrats are also invested in the race, with an operative for House Democrats calling the seat a top priority for the party. House Majority PAC, the super PAC linked to Jeffries, has already spent over $1.8 million in cable advertising in the race so far with further reservations in the New York City media market, HMP communications director CJ Warnke said.

But what it could come down to, Democratic strategist Doug Forand says, is face time with voters.

“Her challenge is to continue to work the retail side of it, you know, and that district has a long and deep history of really aggressive retail politics,” he said.

Linda, a Bedford resident who voted for Harris in 2024, is still on the fence about voting in this year’s midterm election. “Other than the governors, I don’t know enough about the other people running yet,” she told CNN. But she said that her grandson, who is a Republican, is supporting Conley. “He just likes what he knows about her,” she added.

Mt. Kisco resident and small business owner Steve Nadler, who also supported Harris in the last presidential election, feels similarly. “I’ll definitely do my own research prior to submitting a vote,” he said.

Lawler, for his part, says he hasn’t been bothered by national attention on the race and is confident he can keep the seat.

“I think the work I’ve done has put the spotlight on this race,” he said during a stop in Pleasantville, New York. “Ultimately, I don’t feel any uphill battle or additional pressure from it, I live for this.”

A Republican with Democratic endorsements

Despite Trump’s deep unpopularity, Lawler’s local relationships and pitch as a moderate Republican willing to work across the aisle still appear to hold sway with voters.

While cost of living was a top concern for voters who spoke with CNN, few Republicans seemed to fault the Trump ally for it, despite Conley’s efforts to tie them together.

“It’s a little hard when you’re a widow, you’re on Social Security, you’re retired. You know, I spend all my money paying bills,” said 77-year-old Susan Sciascia of Pleasantville. While she feels the strain on her finances, she plans to vote for Lawler next month and says he understands what Americans are experiencing.

“He’s a family man. He’s got kids. He’s got a wife. He’s in it too.” Sciascia added. “He knows what he’s going through, so he knows what we’re going through.”

Conley has also made affordability a central focus in her campaign, but national Democrats want her to push on this issue harder in her messaging in the final weeks of the campaign, a high-ranking aide told CNN.

While Lawler has sought to highlight areas where he’s willing to break with Trump, such as in negotiations on state and local taxes, he’s also worked to tie Conley, who is running as a moderate, to the further left contingencies within her own party.

During a debate last week, Lawler accused New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist and staunch critic of Israel’s government, of antisemitism, and demanded Conley denounce him.

Conley said she condemned antisemitism from anyone and noted that she has disagreements with some democratic socialists within her party, before turning the subject to Trump’s impacts on the district.

But just a train ride away from New York City, the 17th District has a large Jewish population and the Democratic Party’s ongoing debate over Israel could play a role in the House race.

Lawler has highlighted the endorsements of two local Democratic Jewish officials, New Castle Town Councilwoman Ally Chemtob and Montebello Deputy Mayor Stacy Caridi, who cited the congressman’s efforts to fight antisemitism.

“My support for Mike is personal, because when I look beyond party labels to someone I know and trust, I see someone who cares about the safety and well-being of my children,” Chemtob said in a campaign press release.

Conley, however, has stressed her support for Israel and said that she would have voted against cutting military aid to the country.

Asked if she wants Mamdani, or another New York City progressive, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to join her on the campaign trail this fall, Conley told CNN, “Right now, I’m just focused on voters getting to know me and meeting them everywhere that they are.”

That focus was on display on an overcast Sunday last weekend, as she spoke to volunteers armed with lawn signs at a canvassing event in Armonk, New York, and acknowledged the tightness of the race.

“I promise you this is going to be a fight where every door knocked, every call made, every vote is going to matter, and it is a fight that I know I can win, but I cannot win alone,” Conley said.

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CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere and Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.