First things first: The theme song of the week is the closing credits to “Hercules.”
Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that 51% of voters nationwide approve of the House’s impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump. That compares with 45% who disapprove of it.
The Quinnipiac poll is the latest that shows a majority of the public supports the impeachment inquiry.
What’s the point: One of the biggest questions when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared an impeachment inquiry last month was whether the American public would get behind it. Back in August, only 41% of Americans said in a Monmouth University poll that an impeachment inquiry would be a good idea. That’s clearly changed.
Yet a closer look at the polls suggests that while there was quick movement toward Americans supporting the impeachment inquiry once it was declared, that shifting has likely stopped. Support for the inquiry seems to have stabilized (or stalled) in the low to mid-50s.
You can see the lack of fluctuation when you look across multiple pollsters.
All these polls showed movement within the margin of error. Across them, 52% supported the impeachment inquiry at the end of September and 52% support it now.
Indeed, when you look at every single pollster (these and others) that has polled about the inquiry multiple times since it began, we see the same picture: 52% approved of it in September and 52% do in October.
This 52% matches the average support for the inquiry in all October polls regardless of whether a pollster had previously asked the question. In these same polls, 43% of respondents disapprove of the inquiry.
Why has support for the impeachment inquiry seemed to have stabilized? It’s because now the split is about the same as the split in Trump’s approval versus disapproval rating. If you were to look at the average poll, about 42% to 43% of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as President. About 54% disapprove of the job he’s doing (which is within the margin of error of 52% who approve of the inquiry).
If approval of the impeachment inquiry is to rise further, one of two things needs to happen. One is that more people have to start approving of the inquiry than disapprove of Trump’s job performance. That seems unlikely.
Alternatively, more people need to start disapproving of Trump’s job performance. This seems plausible, but approval and disapproval ratings of Trump’s job performance have been steady during this impeachment saga just as they have been during his presidency.
People seem, for now, set on Trump as they are on the impeachment inquiry. A clear majority of Americans disapprove of Trump and approve of the impeachment inquiry into him.