Two men are vying to be inaugurated as Venezuela’s president this week. Here’s what we know

By Michael Rios and Stefano Pozzebon, CNN

(CNN) — Venezuela is set to inaugurate a head of state on Friday – but there are still two men claiming to be the nation’s rightful president.

Incumbent Nicolás Maduro is scheduled to attend a swearing-in ceremony on January 10 to begin his third term in power, despite many countries around the world disputing his claims to have won the presidential election in July.

His challenger Edmundo González Urrutia, who had been in exile in Spain since September, is determined to return to the capital Caracas by January 10 to take office, even under the threat of arrest by Venezuelan authorities.

Here’s what we know about the power struggle and what it means for the country and region.

How did we get here?

Maduro and González both claimed victory in the presidential election on July 28.

Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, a body stacked with Maduro allies, formally declared Maduro the winner without providing voting tallies.

The opposition disputed the claim and released tens of thousands of tallies gathered from across the country, saying they proved González won by a landslide.

Independent observers and CNN’s own analysis concluded that the tallies published by the opposition are likely to be valid, and several countries including the United States recognized Gonzalez as president-elect in recent months.

Thousands of Venezuelans protested the results in the immediate aftermath of the vote, demanding transparency. Many marched in the streets and clashed with police, fed up with the prospect of another Maduro presidency.

Venezuela’s government responded by launching a massive crackdown on the country’s opposition movement, arresting more than two thousand people, including hundreds of minors, in the first week after the election.

Venezuela’s public prosecutor’s office later issued a warrant for the arrest of González, prompting him to flee the country, and his fellow opposition leader María Corina Machado to go into hiding.

González has long vowed to return to Venezuela to form a new government and prevent a new Maduro term. Earlier this week, he urged the military to recognize him as their commander-in-chief and “put an end to the leadership” of Maduro, who has been in power since 2013.

What happens on inauguration day?

González could attempt to enter the Venezuelan capital with key supporters by his side.

Former Colombian President Andrés Pastrana told CNN that he and eight other ex-leaders in Latin America will accompany González to Caracas, but did not specify details of the trip.

Entering Venezuela could prove risky.

On Monday, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello warned that if González arrives in Venezuela, he will be arrested along with any former presidents who accompany him.

Pastrana responded to Cabello’s threat on X, saying, “if they don’t let us in, we’ll see each other on the way out. Very soon.”

For his part, Maduro says he has already received an invitation from the National Assembly to be sworn in at a ceremony on Friday.

The event will take place “in peace, in national unity, together with the people,” he said, alluding to extreme security measures his government is preparing for inauguration day. “There will be no fascism, there will be no imperialism that can stop it.”

In the days leading up to the inauguration, Venezuela said it had it arrested more than 125 people – among them foreigners from several countries including the United States – who were accused of being “mercenaries” involved in “destabilization actions.” It also integrated police and militias with the military, deploying troops across the country to maintain order before the swearing-in ceremony.

International impact

If Maduro takes office again, it could further deteriorate diplomatic relations with many of Venezuela’s neighbors.

A host of countries throughout the region have already refused to recognize his ruling, siding with González instead.

Venezuela cut ties with several countries that questioned the official election results and expelled some of their diplomatic staff. Some nations withdrew diplomats on their own, condemning Maduro’s refusal to give up power.

The inauguration is also expected to affect migration across the Americas.

Under Maduro’s presidency, up to 8 million people have fled Venezuela due to unprecedented levels of poverty and economic mismanagement, with many traveling thousands of miles to reach the US and other countries.

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