Two tropical systems could develop this week as hurricane season enters its final months
By CNN Meteorologist Chris Dolce
Two tropical systems could churn to life by this weekend as Atlantic hurricane season enters its final months and the hot spots to watch for storm development begin to move closer to home.
One disturbance, Invest 94L, is currently producing disorganized showers and storms near the northeastern Caribbean and could develop into a tropical depression as it approaches the Bahamas or Southeast US Coast. The other system to its east, Invest 93L, could organize and track near Bermuda early next week, possibly as a hurricane.
“Invest” is simply a label the National Hurricane Center gives to a patch of stormy weather it wants to investigate for possible tropical development. Once tagged as an invest, additional data is gathered on the thunderstorm cluster, including its own computer model runs, to help forecasters more accurately predict its potential track and strength.
The next names on the Atlantic season’s 2025 list are Humberto and Imelda. September’s first three weeks stayed mostly quiet, but the Atlantic has certainly sprung back to life, so it could be an active period ahead.
US tropical trouble ahead? Maybe.
Invest 94L has a high chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm once it nears the Bahamas late this week or this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Uncertainty around how organized it will become is still high, but increasingly hospitable atmospheric conditions and plenty of warm water fuel give it potential to develop.
A bona fide storm is no guarantee: it could never develop or develop but stay offshore between Bermuda and the US East Coast, similar to August’s Hurricane Erin, or approach the southeastern US coast early next week.
The paths of Invest 93L and 94L are especially tricky to forecast because the jet stream dipping over the Eastern US could tug them in different directions. On top of that, if the two potential systems drift close enough together, they might start to interact — sometimes even pulling or swirling around each other — which makes their future tracks and strength even harder to pin down.
In the meantime, Invest 94L could produce flooding rain in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Wednesday and that threat might linger into Thursday. Some areas could get up to 6 inches of rain, bringing the risk of flash flooding and landslides in areas with steep terrain.
Those in the Bahamas and along Southeast Coast should also stay aware and updated over the coming days as the forecast becomes more confident.
As for Invest 93L, there’s a high chance it organizes into a tropical depression or storm by in the next couple of days. Its future track could take it closer to Bermuda than Gabrielle this week, though it’s too early to predict its exact path.
Late-season formation hot spots shift closer to land
With October’s arrival, the breeding ground for storms shrinks westward away from Africa. The Gulf, Caribbean and western Atlantic are typical late-season formation zones, and since these regions are closer to land, any storms that form have a greater chance to cause dangerous impacts.
Storm activity decreases in the central and eastern Atlantic heading into October because the clusters of showers and storms emerging from Africa that act as seeds for hurricane formation become less numerous and weaker. Upper-level winds that rip apart storms also become more hostile in those regions.
The 2025 Atlantic season has been chugging along at a slower-than-average pace. Only seven named storms have formed through September 22, lagging behind the 1991-2020 average of 10 storms by that date, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.
Two of those storms have become hurricanes: Erin in mid-August and Gabrielle this week. That’s behind the average of 4 to 5 hurricanes that typically form by late September. There have been fewer, but more ferocious hurricanes. Fueled by much warmer-than-average water, Erin rapidly intensified into a Category 5, and Gabrielle similarly exploded into Category 4 strength Monday.
Four named storms typically form in October and November, including two hurricanes. But some seasons have produced plenty more: 2024, 2020 and 2001 had seven more storms after September, while the hyperactive 2005 season produced 11.
And late season storms still pack a punch. Hurricane Milton’s strike on the Florida Peninsula in early October last year was among the seven post-September storm formations last year.
It’s still too early to tell where 2025 will fall on the late season spectrum, but with plenty of warm water fuel close to land, it will be important to keep a close watch on any potential tropical threats.
The-CNN-Wire
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