Team USA is on the verge of one of the most embarrassing moments in its baseball history. Here’s what you need to know

By Kyle Feldscher, CNN

(CNN) — Team USA is on the verge of one of the most embarrassing exits in World Baseball Classic history and, at this point, there’s nothing the Americans can do about it.

After a shocking 8-6 defeat to Italy on Tuesday, a game that saw the Americans fall behind 8-0 before trying to rally in the final innings, Team USA will be stuck watching Italy-Mexico on Wednesday night to determine whether a pre-tournament favorite can continue into the quarterfinals or if the squad is to make a shock tournament exit.

This American team was constructed with nothing less than winning in mind. Going out in pool play, for the first time in the tournament’s 20-year history, would be an incredible upset of a group that was thought to be baseball’s answer to the Dream Team.

Not only would it be shocking for the nation who called baseball “the national pastime” to be sent home before the knockout rounds, it would also mean arguably the tournament’s top team being eliminated and ending its attempt at avenging a loss to Japan in the 2023 final. The field would be wide open for teams like the Dominican Republic, Venezuela and defending champion Japan.

Beyond the play on the field, there are real questions over whether manager Mark DeRosa understood his team’s qualification status and purposely picked a weaker lineup against the Italians and Team USA went from tournament favorite to the verge of being a laughingstock in the span of about four hours on Tuesday.

Here’s what you need to know about Team USA’s current predicament and how the team can still keep its World Baseball Classic bid going.

Wait, the USA got beat by Italy?

So, let’s start with the results on the field. Yes, Team USA and its roster of stars like Aaron Judge were defeated by the Italian national team. But it’s not like these are some random guys who grew up tossing around a baseball among the olive trees of Tuscany.

The World Baseball Classic has incredibly loose rules on what allows a player to qualify to play for one of the national teams. That means that the Italian team is full of American-born players who have some connection to Italy through one of their parents, and most of them are playing in the major leagues.

Still, that 8-6 loss could have been much, much worse – it was 8-0 after five-and-a-half innings – and there might be a reason for that.

Why is Team USA’s manager being criticized?

Part of how that may have happened could be explained in a pre-game interview on MLB Network’s “Hot Stove” on Tuesday.

In the interview, DeRosa, Team USA’s manager, tells the hosts that he planned to give some of his players a rest in the game against Italy.

“I’m gonna get some guys off their feet, no question about it,” DeRosa said, before discussing his desire to start Paul Goldschmidt of the New York Yankees and Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles in Tuesday’s game.

But then he continues with a quote that has since gone viral: “Ton of respect for Italy. It’s weird; we want to win this game even though our ticket’s punched to the quarterfinals because Mexico plays Italy actually tomorrow, so the way the schedule aligns up this is an important game for us.”

The problem? The USA hadn’t qualified for the quarters yet.

The lineup DeRosa put on the field Tuesday night had several big changes from Monday’s game against Mexico: Out went 60-homer catcher Cal Raleigh, former MVP Bryce Harper, star third baseman Alex Bregman, second baseman Brice Turang and centerfielder Byron Buxton. In went Henderson (playing out of position at third base), first baseman Goldschmidt, second baseman Ernie Clement, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and catcher Will Smith.

Some of those decisions worked out – Crow-Armstrong hit two home runs, Smith went 2-for-4 (though committed a critical error) – and others didn’t. But DeRosa had an uncomfortable question to answer after the game: Did he make lineup decisions based off the mistaken notion that progress to the knockout rounds was already assured?

He sort of answered it.

“Yeah, I misspoke,” he said in response to a reporter’s question about the interview. “I was on Hot Stove with a couple buddies today and completely misread the calculations. We knew that Mexico was going to play Italy and then running all the numbers if we lost tonight, with the runs allowed and runs scored and outs. So, I just misspoke.”

So, what are the tiebreakers?

To say the WBC’s tiebreaker rules are complicated is an insult to complications.

There’s one easy scenario: If Italy beats Mexico on Wednesday night, then the USA will finish in second place in Pool B, advance to the quarterfinals and can just leave this whole mess behind. The US’ 3-1 record would top Mexico’s 2-2 record, giving them sole possession of second place.

If Mexico beats Italy, then we face the most terrifying aspect of sports: Math.

Should the Mexicans defeat the Italians, Mexico, Italy and the USA will all finish with 3-1 records in Pool B.

The next tiebreaker: something called RA/DOUT (Runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded). If that’s tied, then it goes to ERA/DOUT: Earned runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded (yes, runs allowed and earned runs are a different stat; for instance, if a player scores because the opposing team made an error then that would count as a run but not an earned run).

And if that is tied, the third tiebreaker is the highest team batting average in pool play.

And if even that is tied (which feels highly unlikely), the WBC’s organizing committee will draw lots.

What needs to happen for the USA to go through?

To distill all of that down, here’s what the scenarios are tonight.

Italy wins Pool B by beating Mexico and Team USA goes through to the quarterfinals.

If Mexico wins, then it gets complicated.

Basically, if it’s a low scoring game – Mexico scoring four runs or fewer and winning the game – then Italy and Mexico would advance to the quarterfinals and Team USA will go home.

If it’s a high-scoring game and Mexico wins while scoring five runs or more, then Mexico and Team USA will advance and Italy will go home.

And if the Mexicans and Italians are tied after nine innings and need to go into extra innings, then the math all changes and there will be some late-night calculations going on in Houston.

Clarification: This story has been updated to clarify the qualifications scenario for Team USA.

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