Texas Tribune: Several polls show Trump with single-digit lead in Texas
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll isn’t the only one to show a tight race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in Texas.
In ours, published Thursday morning, Trump leads Clinton by just 3 points – within the margin of error. Among women voters in Texas, the two candidates are tied.
Here’s a roundup of some other recent surveys in Texas:
A Crosswind/American-Statesman Texas Pulse poll published Wednesday showed Trump leading here by 7 points. A CBS News/YouGov poll published Sunday showed Trump leading the state by 3 points. A University of Houston poll published Oct. 18 gave Trump a 3-point edge. A WFAA-TV/SurveyUSA poll published Oct. 13 showed Trump ahead by 4 points.
If Trump were to win Texas by single digits, Democrats would have cause to celebrate. Barack Obama lost by 12 points here in 2008, and by 16 points in 2012. If Trump were to lose Texas, it would be the first time a Democrat has carried the state since 1976.
Some news outlets have declared Texas no longer “solidly red.” They’ve classified it as “leans red” or even “a toss-up.” Consider this: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight shows Clinton has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump does of winning the nation.
Early voting turnout has increased dramatically in Texas this year. Record-breaking numbers were reported in many of the state’s biggest counties on both the first and second day polls were open. Early voting continues through Nov. 4. Election Day is Nov. 8.
Here’s what you need to know about voting in Texas this year:
Get election stats for your county. What Texans need to know about voter ID. What are the rules for Texas poll watchers? We explain. The voting-age population figure being used by the Texas secretary of state’s office to calculate registration and turnout percentages may be off the mark. A record 15.1 million Texans have registered to vote in the November election – a number that eclipses the preliminary estimate by more than 85,000. Texas ranked eighth-to-last in voter turnout for the presidential primaries. We’re tracking how many Texans are turning out to vote early this year compared to 2008 and 2012.
