Central El Paso’s 79903 zip code emerges as hot spot as county reaches crossroads in virus fight
EL PASO, Texas -- Friday marks seven weeks since El Paso’s first reported Covid-19 case. It’s also the day that Gov. Greg Abbott ordered the Texas economy to begin reopening.
Seven weeks into efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus, the number of new cases is growing, but at a slower rate.
Covid-19 is not spread evenly across El Paso. In fact, central El Paso’s 79903 zip code has emerged as a virus hot spot with the number of confirmed cases doubling in the past week, giving the area the second highest infection rate in the county, according to an El Paso Matters analysis.
That zip code has an infection rate of 19.6 cases per 10,000 residents. That’s second only to 31.4 cases per 10,000 in Tornillo in the rural Lower Valley.
Across all of El Paso over the past two weeks, reported new cases have grown, on average, by less than 6-percent a day. That’s well below the growth rate of the first five weeks of the Covid-19 crisis in El Paso, according to Bob Moore of El Paso Matters, who compiled a series of interactive charts.
But Moore noted that any discussion of the number of infections must include a major caveat. El Paso’s testing rate continues to lag more than 40 percent behind the national average, so the number of cases continues to be under-counted.
It also means there still isn't a solid knowledge of the extent of community spread in El Paso. That’s a major reason why New Mexico health authorities are saying that Land of Enchantment residents shouldn’t venture to El Paso as stores and restaurants open.
The Department of Public Health reported 21 deaths in El Paso County as of Thursday night. That’s a rate of 2.5 deaths per 100,000 residents, well below the national rate of 19.4 deaths per 100,000. The statewide rate in Texas is 2.7 deaths per 100,000 people.
But more than half of El Paso’s deaths have come in the past week.
Gov. Abbott has said he will look at hospitalization data as a key indicator on whether restrictions could be further loosened or tightened again.
The number of hospitalizations and intensive care admissions due to Covid-19 in El Paso climbed in the first two weeks of April, when the Department of Public Health first began reporting such data. Many of these were likely infections contracted before the city and county “Stay Home, Work Safe” orders shut down much of the movement in El Paso.
The number of hospital and ICU admissions initially peaked on April 15, declined for a few days and then generally held steady until Wednesday, when they began to shoot up again.
Dr. Hector Ocaranza, the El Paso city-county health authority, said “there is a strong correlation between the Easter break (April 11-12) and the spike in positive cases” that began showing up two to three weeks later. He expressed concerns that Mother’s Day, May 10, could trigger another Covid-19 surge if compliance with safety guidelines weakens.
