Trump surprises Zelensky with public promise on Patriots – but the missiles may not come soon enough

By Ivana Kottasová, CNN

(CNN) — US President Donald Trump’s promise to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors has given a glimmer of hope to millions of Ukrainians terrorized by Russia’s deadly ballistic missiles strikes.

Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump said a “little birdie told me … that we’ll give them the right to make Patriots.”

The announcement came as a surprise, even though Ukraine has been working on the issue for years, and there were some indications a deal could be close. Sat next to Trump, President Volodymyr Zelensky at times looked like he almost couldn’t believe his luck. The two men share a rocky relationship and the flareup in the war in Iran appeared to have put Trump into a foul mood just before his meeting with Zelensky.

Trump’s language was rather vague, and he admitted that he had not yet discussed the issue with the US companies manufacturing the Patriots – Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. They have not commented on it.

Zelensky said that getting production started would eventually allow Ukraine to produce enough interceptors for its needs as well as those of its allies.

Ukraine has always faced a tight supply of Patriot missiles, the only weapon that can take down some of Russia’s most advanced ballistic missiles. But the shortage has become critical in recent weeks – and the results have been devastating.

Russian attacks killed at least 59 people in Kyiv area in just the past week – with one massive aerial strike claiming 31 lives on Thursday and another killing 28 on Monday. More than 200 people were injured.

It is likely that many of these deaths could have been prevented if Kyiv had sufficient supplies of the interceptors.

Ukraine has become a master in defending its skies against Russian aerial attacks, using a combination of smart home-grown technology, Western-supplied weapons and scrappy military tactics that includes mobile units of soldiers and volunteers repurposing weapons meant for other uses to shoot down drones and missiles.

Analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data shows that Ukraine is regularly shooting down 90% of Russian drones and cruise missiles. Ballistic missiles, however, are another beast, with two-thirds of those regularly getting through.

The shortage of Patriots has created even a bigger hole in the system. Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday that it failed to shoot down any of the Russian ballistic missiles fired at it overnight into Wednesday.

This is because ballistic missiles follow a curved trajectory that takes them out of the Earth’s atmosphere, before plunging back into the atmosphere and onto its target. They travel at extremely high speeds, which makes them very difficult to intercept – and Russia is currently firing as many as 100 such missiles every month.

What makes Patriots so special?

The Patriots, short for Phased Array Tracking Radar for Intercept on Target, are the US Army’s key missile defense system.

It is the most advanced system available, and the price tag reflects that. With the complete setup of launchers, radars and interceptor missiles, each battery costs more than $1 billion, with a single interceptor costing up to $4 million, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The technology behind the system is a closely guarded secret and currently, Japan and Germany are the only countries with licenses to co-produce Patriots domestically. The complexity of the weapon makes the production of the latest interceptor missiles difficult – only 600 are produced every year, according to the US Department of Defense.

The recent conflict between the US and Iran has put extra pressure on already stretched supplies, and Zelensky said getting production started in his country would eventually allow it to produce enough interceptors for the needs of itself and its allies.

Ukraine is believed to have at least seven Patriot systems: three that were supplied by the US; three from Germany; and at least one from a group of European allies.

While getting the license would be a major development for Kyiv, it would not do much in the short term. Getting production underway could take months but the country needs the defenses now. On Thursday, Kyiv said it had asked nearly 40 countries to provide Ukraine with missiles from their existing stocks as soon as possible, “in exchange for future deliveries already contracted for Ukraine.”

Securing the licenses would be a major boost for Kyiv, which is why Russia is watching any developments around the Patriots closely. Moscow has made no secret of targeting the systems in Ukraine and has warned Kyiv’s allies against supplying them.

Speaking to reporters during his daily briefing on Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed the Patriot license promise as a major shift in the war, pointing to what he called a “certain ambivalence” and “duality” in Trump‘s position.

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CNN’s Victoria Butenko, Zahra Ullah, Anna Chernova and Svitlana Vlasova contributed to this report.