Exclusive: US intelligence assesses Iran maintains significant missile launching capability, sources say

By Haley Britzky, Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto, Tal Shalev, CNN

(CNN) — Roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers are still intact and thousands of one-way attack drones remain in Iran’s arsenal despite the daily pounding by US and Israeli strikes against military targets over the past five weeks, according to recent US intelligence assessments, three sources familiar with the intel told CNN.

“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one of the sources said of Iran.

The US intelligence assessment total may include launchers that are currently inaccessible, such as those buried underground by strikes but not destroyed.

Thousands of Iranian drones still exist — roughly 50% of the country’s drone capabilities — two of the sources said the intelligence indicated. The intelligence, compiled in recent days, also showed a large percentage of Iran’s coastal defense cruise missiles were intact, the sources said, consistent with the US not focusing its air campaign on coastal military assets though they have been hitting ships. Those missiles serve as a key capability allowing Iran to threaten shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

The intelligence offers a more nuanced picture of Iran’s continuing capabilities compared to sweeping assessments of military victory offered publicly by President Donald Trump and administration officials.

In remarks to the nation on Wednesday evening, Trump said Iran’s “ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left.”

As of Wednesday, the US has struck more than 12,300 targets inside Iran, according to US Central Command. The sources said the intelligence showed the US military has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, and key senior leaders have been killed in US and Israeli strikes, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council.

In addition to the country’s missile launchers, Iran maintains a large number of missiles, according to the intelligence.

In public comments, the Pentagon has pointed to a reduction in the total number of missiles launched by Iran, rather than what has been destroyed. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said during a press briefing on March 19 that “ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict, same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent.”

In response to questions for this story, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said that, “anonymous sources desperately want to attack President Trump and demean the incredible work of our United States Military in achieving the goals of Operation Epic Fury.”

“Here are the facts: Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks are down 90 percent, their navy is wiped out, two-thirds of their production facilities are damaged or destroyed, and the United States and Israel have overwhelming air dominance over Iran,” she said. “The terrorist regime is being decimated militarily and their dismal situation grows bleaker by the day – their only hope is to make a deal with President Trump’s administration and leave behind their nuclear ambitions for good. Otherwise, they will be hit harder than they’ve ever been hit before.”

An administration official added that Iran’s ballistic missiles are being destroyed rapidly.

Israel, countries in the Gulf, and US military personnel have continued to face regular barrages of missile and drone strikes.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell disputed CNN’s reporting, calling it “completely wrong.”

“The United States military has delivered a crippling series of blows to the Iranian regime,” Parnell said. “We are far ahead of schedule on accomplishing our military objectives: destroy Iran’s missile arsenal, annihilate their Navy, destroy their terrorist proxies, and ensure Iran can never obtain a nuclear weapon.”

Israeli military officials put the total number of operational Iranian launchers at a lower number, roughly 20-25%. Israel does not include launchers that have been buried or made inaccessible in caves and tunnels in their count of surviving launchers, said one of the sources familiar with the US’ intelligence assessment and an Israeli source.

On Wednesday, Trump put the timeline for finishing US operations at two to three weeks.

The first source who has reviewed the US intelligence assessment said such a goal was unrealistic, given how much remains on the playing field for Iran to use.

“We can keep f**king them up, I don’t doubt it, but you’re out of your mind if you think this will be done in two weeks,” the source said.

Hegseth said this week in a press briefing that Iran’s firepower is continuing to decrease.

“Yes, they will still shoot some missiles, but we will shoot them down,” he said. “Of note, the last 24 hours saw the lowest number of enemy missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, but we will find them.”

The ability to go underground is a primary reason why launchers have not been further degraded, two of the sources familiar with the recent assessment told CNN. Iran has long hid its launchers in extensive networks of tunnels and caves — preparing for conflict like this for decades — making them particularly difficult to target. Two of the sources said Iran has had success in shooting and moving the mobile platforms, making it difficult to track the launchers, similar to the challenges the US has had with the Houthis in Yemen, one of Iran’s primary proxy forces.

The US and Israel have increasingly targeted tunnel entrances to those underground facilities and equipment used to try to regain access to them, like bulldozers and other heavy equipment, Annika Ganzeveld, the Middle East Portfolio Manager for the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute said.

The recent intelligence assessment also comes as the US has struggled to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging privately that it cannot promise to reopen the crucial waterway before ending the war. The coastal cruise missile capabilities could be largely still intact because it hasn’t been the focus of the US military’s campaign, the first source said, instead narrowing its firepower on what can be fired at allies in the region. But those capabilities have also likely retreated underground, making them difficult to find.

And while Iran’s Navy has largely been destroyed, the first source said, the separate naval forces belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still retain roughly half of its capabilities. The second source said the IRGC still has “hundreds, if not thousands, of small boats and unmanned surface vessels left.”

As of Wednesday, CENTCOM said in a public release that more than 155 Iranian vessels have been damaged or destroyed. But Ganzeveld said it has been unclear when the US says it has destroyed Iranian vessels which Navy they’re referring to.

The IRGC Navy, she said, is largely the force responsible for harassing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

“There are certainly things that remain — the proxies, as well as the drones, and Iran recently demonstrated in the past couple of days that it still retains the ability to target shipping in the strait,” Ganzeveld said. “So there are definitely things that remain to be targeted if we want to completely destroy these capabilities.”

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