ABC-7 First Alert: High rain chances and flooding potential
Hello everyone, I'm still in for Dave tonight. Don't worry, I have you covered. We are under a First Alert, and the reason why is because we have the potential to see thunderstorms across our entire area over the next several days. Some of these thunderstorms will be able to drop an inch or more in a short amount of time which will lead to flooding. Other areas will see numerous thunderstorms training over the same area- dropping a lot of rain and causing some flooding. With mostly saturated ground, rain will stay on the surface, and will accumulate in low lying areas, arroyos, and even on roadways. Please do not drive into roadways with running water on them...but drive at your own risk.
My confidence in rain occurring throughout the next several days is very high. You might ask, why isn't it at a 100% chance of rain occurring if you are so confident? 1) That is the difficulty of forecasting! 2) Timing, coverage, and confidence all take part in my decision to forecast a certain rain chance. With this particular case, I could say, yes, we will 100% be seeing rain...but we won't be seeing rain all day-> typically the storms are in the afternoon and evening hours. I also don't want to say 100% because it is very likely that not every single inch our our DMA will see rain. Thus, I have it at 60% tomorrow, and 70% on Friday and Saturday because I am very confident that many of us will be seeing rain, but that it won't be raining all day, and that it won't be in every area of our DMA. Just wanted to explain that to you all.
Watch out for strong wind gusts in and around the storms, and there is a possibility for some small hail. We had a severe thunderstorm yesterday, and there's a chance we can see a few strong thunderstorms develop over the next few days. The requirements for a severe thunderstorm are the following: 58+ mph winds, or 1 inch hail. There's a chance that some storms may become severe, so you can count on me, Iris tomorrow, and the NWS El Paso office to let you know if that occurs. I will be back on Saturday morning to help you then. Stay safe!
