UTEP Professor: Expect Juarez Violence To Continue In 2010

By ABC-7’s Jill Galus

The new year has already brought more bloodshed in Juarez.

More than 2,600 people were killed in 2009, which is more than a thousand deaths higher than 2008, and according to Chihuahua state police, four more were murdered within the first twelve hours of 2010.

Tony Payan, a UTEP political science professor, thinks it will only get worse. “I really do not see an end in sight for the violence in Ciudad Juarez, so we’re going to be counting bodies everyday,” he says.

The first body of the new year was found around 2am Friday. Chihuahua state police say suspects fired a weapon from inside a vehicle until they killed a man on the street.

“The level of impunity encourages that because he chances of getting caught are minimal, probably below one percent,” says Payan.

The professor adds that what began as a war between two drug cartels has escalated into a surge of all-out brutality and chaos.

“You have a huge number of individuals in Juarez who are now criminal entrepreneurs taking it upon themselves to go around the city, victimizing people,” he says.

According to ABC-7’s news partner XHIJ Channel 44, the death toll has already spiked to four, just halfway through New Year’s Day.

Payan says that indicates this year will only mean more of last year’s death and destruction in a city that’s spiraled out of control.

“The city’s empty – people are not coming out; they’re simply staying home. They don’t want to risk anything – they don’t want to protest; they don’t want to go out – it’s a climate of fear,” he says, adding, “There is a danger the criminal situation in Juarez may stabilize at a high level of maybe ten murders a day; it is possible it’ll stay there for a while.”

Payan says the outstanding numbers of person after person murdered makes an overwhelming investigation.

“They no longer have faith in their authorities; they have no faith in the military; they have no faith in the police; they have no faith in the state and local police forces,” he says.

In addition, Payan says, “I would not recommend El Pasoans today to go to Ciudad Juarez at all…it’s sad, but that’s what’s going to happen.”