A tiny light in an economic data blackout is about to shine though the shutdown for a brief moment

By Alicia Wallace, CNN

(CNN) — Nearly two dozen days have passed since a federal agency has published an economic report. The US government’s shutdown has resulted in a blackout of critical data, further clouding an already opaque economic outlook.

That will change – albeit briefly – Friday morning, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to release the Consumer Price Index report for September.

The September CPI will allow the data-hungry to get a little fix, providing a snapshot of how prices are trending for Americans.

The report is a one-off of sorts: BLS staff were called back into the office this month to allow the government to meet statutory requirements in adjusting Social Security payments for next year. The September CPI is the final piece of data needed for the 2026 cost of living adjustment.

So, after the CPI is released, darkness once again will envelop federal economic data until the government reopens.

(And as for the report itself, economists tell CNN that despite the circumstances behind the delayed release, they’re not concerned about the integrity of the underlying data.)

Expect inflation to move back above 3%

Economists expect the latest data to show that prices for a slew of commonly purchased goods and services rose at a faster-than-typical clip (0.4%) last month. This would lift the annual rate of inflation from 2.9% to 3.1% – the fastest pace in more than a year.

There are many factors behind the upswing, including: pricier gas, food and tariff-impacted goods as well as slower-than-anticipated reduction in inflation on the services side – notably housing.

It’s helpful to remember that the last time inflation was below 2% was in February 2021, Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told CNN in an interview.

“At the macro level, it’s a reminder of how sticky inflation can be when it gets out of the tube and how hard it is to get to back to that 2% once it’s been above target for a while,” he said.

The foods likely to get pricier

American consumers have weathered nearly five years of prices rising faster than they typically should (and prices rose far, far faster than usual for two of those years). However, years of high inflation have taken their toll.

Food prices, for example, have risen 24% between 2020 and 2024, noted Billy Roberts, senior analyst for food and beverage at CoBank, which provides financial services to agribusinesses and rural firms.

“We’ve seen smaller degrees of inflation, even over the course of this year, but it’s really that cumulative effect,” he said.

In August, grocery prices jumped 0.6%, the highest monthly increase in nearly three years, according to BLS data. Economists expect the September gain to be more mellow; however, certain categories likely will highlight pain points.

Beef prices, for example, have risen dramatically in recent years as herds have shrunk amid prolonged drought. Cocoa and coffee prices, which have been pushed higher by climate change stifling supply, now face further pressures from tariffs.

Consumers stocking up for trick-or-treaters are now seeing the effects, Roberts said, noting cocoa prices are “still about double, if not triple, what they were in 2022-’23.”

“Those aren’t items that consumers necessarily buy week in and week out,” but they’re buying in bulk now for Halloween, he said. “Those prices are going to provide a lot of sticker shock for consumers.”

The K-shaped economy fallout

Food prices remain a sore spot for many Americans as do electricity prices, which also have been on the rise, Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, told CNN.

In addition to those categories, Brusuelas noted he’ll be monitoring services-related inflation — such as airfare and other discretionary areas — and whether it’s remaining stubbornly high.

“What I am concerned about is the sticky and stubborn service sector costs along with rising food and utility prices, which are really placing stress on middle-class and down-market households,” he said. “And this is a function of that greater discussion around the K-shaped economy, where 40% of this country is thriving.”

A recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics found that the country’s top-earners (who have benefited from a surging stock market, rising wages and increased housing wealth) are accounting for an even greater share of overall spending.

“Down market,” Brusuelas added, “it’s a very different reality.”

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