Trump weighs major new strike on Iran as nuclear discussions show no progress
By Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood, Zachary Cohen, Jennifer Hansler, Oren Liebermann, Kevin Liptak, Kristen Holmes, CNN
(CNN) — President Donald Trump is weighing a major new strike on Iran after preliminary discussions between Washington and Tehran over limiting the country’s nuclear program and ballistic missile production failed to make progress, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trump’s latest threats were met with indignation by Tehran, which vowed an immediate response to any US military action, with one top adviser to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei threatening to target Israel if an attack goes ahead.
It’s a rapid refocusing of the US administration’s publicly framed objectives for Iran and comes only weeks after Trump seriously considered military action he framed as potential aid for nationwide protests in Iran. Protesters had faced violent crackdowns by security forces leading to hundreds of killings.
Trump on Wednesday posted on Truth Social demanding that Iran come to the table to negotiate “a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.” He warned the next US attack on the country “will be far worse” than the one it carried out last summer, when the US military attacked three of Iran’s nuclear sites.
Options he is now considering include US military airstrikes aimed at Iran’s leaders and the security officials believed to be responsible for the killings, as well as strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and government institutions, the sources said. Trump has not made a final decision on how to proceed, sources said, but he believes his military options have been expanded from earlier this month now that a US carrier strike group is in the region.
The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group entered the Indian Ocean on Monday and is continuing to move closer to Iran where it could support any potential operations against the country, both in terms of aiding in strikes and in protecting regional allies from potential Iranian retaliation.
The US and Iran had been exchanging messages — including through Omani diplomats and between Trump’s foreign envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi — earlier this month about a possible meeting to ward off a US attack, which Trump had been threatening in response to protesters’ deaths, the sources said.
There was a brief discussion of an in-person meeting, but that never came to fruition, one source said. There have been no serious direct negotiations between the US and Iran as Trump has ramped up his threats of military action in recent days, according to another person familiar with the matter.
It’s not clear why Trump has since shifted his focus back to Iran’s nuclear program, which he said last summer had been “obliterated” by US strikes. But Iran has been trying to rebuild its nuclear sites even deeper underground, according to a person familiar with recent US intelligence on the issue, and has long resisted US pressure to halt its uranium enrichment. The regime has also barred the UN’s nuclear watchdog from inspecting its nuclear sites.
Amid the threats of military action, the US has also demanded preconditions for a meeting with Iranian officials, the sources said, including a permanent end to uranium enrichment central to Iran’s nuclear program, new curbs on Iran’s ballistic missile program and halting all support for Iranian proxies in the region.
The biggest sticking point, sources said, has been the US demand that Iran agree to put limits on the range of its ballistic missiles — an acute concern for Israel, which expended much of its missile interceptor stockpile shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles during last June’s 12-day war. Iran has balked at that and told the US it would only discuss its nuclear program. The US has not replied, leaving both sides at a dead end, the sources said.
A US official on Monday said the administration is still willing to engage with Iran as long as “they know what the terms are.”
“We are open for business…as they say, so if they want to contact us and they know what the terms are, then we’re going to have the conversation,” the official told reporters.
The official would not give details on the terms but said “they’ve been reported throughout this entire beginning of the Trump administration, so they’re aware of the terms.”
Still, the US is preparing for possible action. The US military has been moving air defense systems to the region, including additional Patriot batteries, to help protect US forces there from possible Iranian retaliation, a US official said. The US is also planning to move one or more THAAD missile defense systems to the region, multiple sources said.
Meanwhile, the US Air Force is set to conduct a multi-day air exercise in the Middle East, allowing airmen to prove “they can disperse, operate, and generate combat sorties under demanding conditions — safely, precisely and alongside our partners,” said a statement from Lt. Gen. Derek France, US Central Command’s AFCENT commander and Combined Forces Air Component commander.
Iran’s top diplomat Araghchi warned Wednesday that the country’s armed forces are fully prepared to respond “immediately and powerfully” to any aggression against Iran’s territory, airspace or waters.
“Our brave Armed Forces are prepared — with their fingers on the trigger — to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea,” Araghchi wrote in English on X. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said the remarks were in response to threats from Trump.
Ali Shamkhani, a key adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, warned on X that any military action would be considered the start of war and vowed an “unprecedented” response, specifically naming Tel Aviv as a target.
Regime is historically weak, but decisive blow unlikely
Recent US intelligence reports, which Trump has been briefed on, indicate that the Iranian regime is in a historically weak position following US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and proxy forces last year, and the mass protests that erupted earlier this month, said people familiar with the assessments. And Trump hinted last weekend that he wants to see Khamenei, removed from power.
“It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” Trump told Politico on Saturday, appearing to double down on his past comments backing regime change in Iran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio also told lawmakers on Wednesday that the Iranian regime “is probably weaker than has ever been.”
But the Iranian government has been weakened before, one of the sources familiar with the intelligence noted, and there is no guarantee that deposing Khamenei would mark the regime’s downfall.
“Even if you remove the ayatollah, his successors are all hardliners, too,” this person said. There are also no indications that Iran’s security services are preparing to turn against the government, sources said.
Rubio also echoed that perspective saying “no one knows” who would take over if the supreme leader is removed from power.
Nonetheless, all options remain on the table for the president, a source familiar with the discussions told CNN.
Ideally, Trump wants to carry out a powerful, conclusive strike that will force Tehran to accept US terms for a ceasefire, one official said. If an attack on Iran is ordered, Trump will want to declare victory in short order.
On Truth Social on Wednesday, Trump appeared to compare a possible US military operation against Iran to the one he ordered in Venezuela in December to remove then-President Nicolas Maduro. But two US officials said Trump is aware that a military strike against Iran would be far more difficult than a precise covert operation into Venezuela.
Iran has an array of air defense systems, ballistic missiles, and one-way attack drones in its arsenal, as well as aging but battle-tested US and Russian fighter jets. Tehran’s military capabilities, even if far outnumbered and much older than modern US systems, make a decisive strike far more difficult. And unlike the Venezuelan capital of Caracas, Tehran is hours from the coast, posing different challenges to a potential military operation there.
The Trump administration had also had conversations with the now-interim Venezuelan government prior to detaining Maduro, laying the groundwork for a transitional regime. Such conversations have not taken place on the Iranian side, sources said.
Rubio acknowledged on Wednesday that the situation in Iran is “more complex.”
“You’re talking about a regime that’s in place for a very long time, so that’s going to require a lot careful thinking if that eventuality ever presents itself,” he said, referring to the possibility of regime change there.
In a rebuke of possible US military action, key US allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have ruled out use of their airspace and territory for a US operation.
Their declarations earlier this week come amid strong concerns from Gulf allies and Turkey about potential US military moves, which they have communicated to both Tehran and Washington, said one of the people familiar with the discussions.
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that the Iranian message has likely been “that any country that allowed this airspace to be used also will be seen as a legitimate target from the Iranian side, and by that, they are messaging these countries that this will be very bad for them as well.”
Targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader poses its own set of challenges. After June’s conflict between Israel and Iran, Israel’s defense minister acknowledged the country did not have the opportunity to strike the Ayatollah.
“He was a legitimate target for elimination, but it wasn’t possible this time around,” Israel Katz said in one of a series of interviews after the conflict ended.
In the opening salvo its June strikes, Israel eliminated Iran’s highest-ranking military officer, the head its elite Revolutionary Guard Corps and others, demonstrating the precise intelligence Israel had before it attacked. But Israel was never able to pinpoint Khamenei.
Katz, who had said Khamenei was marked for death, admitted Israel could not zero in on Iran’s leader after he went into hiding.
“Khamenei understood this. He went deep underground to great depths, and even broke off contact with the commanders,” Katz told Kan News. “So ultimately, it wasn’t realistic.”
CNN’s Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed to this story
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