How the avocado supply disruption could impact Borderland businesses

EL PASO, Texas – The U.S. government suspension of all imports of Mexican avocados from Michoacan - raising some concern for some local eateries.

Borderland businesses are quickly trying to address the avocado suspension.

Many El Paso restaurants rely on the sales of avocado items to operate, but with this recent ban, some restaurants are quickly seeking alternatives. 

In El Paso’s east side, Taco Avocat specializes in rolled tacos. Additionally, the restaurant is known for its avocado-themed store and signage throughout. The owner says that customers go to his restaurant because of the guacamole he sells alongside the rolled tacos. 

Jacob Cryderman, the owner of Taco Avocat, told ABC-7 that his restaurant does rely on avocados, but only to a certain extent. 

“But when you look at our staple and what brings people here- for sure, all of them mention the guac,” Cryderman said.

He says only 15% of sales are linked to avocados. 

But Cryderman also explained that up to 50% of all orders that customers ask for include avocado-based items, like guacamole dip.

He says it’s rare when customers order their tacos and do not ask for guacamole.

Cryderman said he already knew about the avocado disruption, but he isn’t concerned. He already predicts what could soon happen.

“I assume prices will go up first, and then quality and even inventory will disappear, so we will just watch what happens.”

He says that the first thing that may occur at his business is raising the prices. As for finding avocados elsewhere, he only wants high-quality avocados and won’t settle for anything less. 

He says that if the price and the quality don’t align, he will temporarily pull avocado items from the menu. 

But he says the impact won’t be significant and he says his customers will understand. 

“We react and adapt, so if we had to go without avocados - we would stop selling avocados and stop the guac. We would just rely on more cheese.”

Tom Fullerton, UTEP Economics professor, says the import ban will probably lead to a “very high price increase” of this popular fruit.

Fullerton estimates that in 2021 El Pasoans consumed $23.6 million worth of avocados. He says that in 2022, the number could reach $40 million- if the price increase on this item continues. 

He says the ban will be felt almost instantly in the Borderland. Fullerton says that in the next ten days prices for avocados could nearly double. 

As for current inventories of avocado, “They will probably run out by about next week or the week after- and so prices are already increasing. They are being bit up fairly rapidly.”

Fullerton says that soon restaurants may start offering other salsas, instead of the standard guacamole. 

He also said that avocado imports from other countries will increase. 

As for immediate effects- he says they are already happening. He says that wholesalers have already started contacting customers to see what prices they are willing to pay. 

Fullerton says that the economic impact could last six months or longer in the absence of an agreement between both countries.