Could a Trump-Vance win reshape America’s relationship with China – and Taiwan?

Analysis by Simone McCarthy, CNN

Hong Kong (CNN) — The official launch of the Republican presidential campaign ticket of Donald Trump and JD Vance this week has been closely scrutinized by governments around the globe looking for clues to what a return of an “America First” foreign policy might look like – including in the world’s second-largest economy.

Vance, a junior senator from Ohio, wove several mentions of China – and what he painted as its negative impact on the American economy – into his introduction of his own life and views to the Republican National Convention (RNC) Wednesday, when he accepted the nomination to be Trump’s vice-presidential candidate.

Much like his running mate, Vance claimed that policies in past decades supported by President Joe Biden and “out-of-touch politicians” in Washington meant the US “was flooded with cheap Chinese goods, with cheap foreign labor, and in the decades to come, deadly Chinese fentanyl.”

“We’re going to build factories again … together, we will protect the wages of American workers and stop the Chinese Communist Party from building their middle class on the backs of American citizens,” Vance said.

The comments, which were among the few direct references to foreign nations throughout the nearly 40-minute speech, come in a week where Vance and Trump have shown signals of how their administration would shape US policy and relations with China – and US partners in Asia.

That’s drawn attention from the region, where countries’ ties with the US start to look different if power changes hands in the November elections.

Beijing has already obliquely called for the rhetoric to tone down, with a Foreign Ministry spokesperson on both Tuesday and Wednesday repeating that Beijing is “opposed to making China an issue in US elections,” when asked about statements from each Trump and Vance in recent days.

‘Biggest threat’

Vance has already rattled allies in Europe by strongly criticizing US support for Ukraine as it tries to defend itself against Russia. Like Trump, he has also repeatedly criticized NATO and its European members for not spending enough on defense.

That view drew praise from Russia’s top diplomat on Wednesday.

“He (Vance) stands for peace, for cessation of aid. We can only welcome this because, in fact, it is necessary to stop pumping Ukraine with weapons, and the war will end,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

Part of Vance’s skepticism toward support for Ukraine lies in his view that a much more pressing danger to the US is being ignored.

Vance was swift to name China the “biggest threat to our country,” in an interview with Fox News Monday as the RNC got underway.

The war in Ukraine must be brought to a “rapid close” so America can focus on “the real issue, which is China,” he said.

The vice-presidential candidate has in recent months also argued that the US supplying Ukraine with air defense systems could hurt its ability to aid Taiwan’s defense – if China were to attack the self-ruled island.

Vance doesn’t have the long-standing China-hawk credentials of other potential running mates Trump reportedly considered, such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio, and vice presidents can have a varied level of involvement in foreign affairs.

But Trump’s selection of the 39-year-old senator is seen by some observers to reinforce a hard line on China – a position Beijing is likely watching closely.

The former president reshaped American policy toward Beijing during his four years in office – even as he has professed to “respect” and “like” autocratic Chinese leader Xi Jinping – launching a tech and trade war and casting China as a rival whose success comes at the US’s expense.

US President Joe Biden has largely kept – and more recently expanded – tariffs Trump placed on a wide swath of Chinese goods. He’s made countering what Washington says is a security threat from China a cornerstone of his foreign policy, even as he’s worked to stabilize communications with Beijing.

All that considered, “the Chinese administration is (likely) scenario and contingency planning with alarm for the prospective return of an administration that is even less keen on cooperation and engagement than the current Democrat administration,” Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World.

View on Taiwan

Another issue that Beijing is watching closely is how these candidates frame their stance on Taiwan, the self-governing democracy that China’s ruling Communist Party claims as its own, despite never having controlled it.

In an interview this week with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump said Taiwan “should pay us for defense,” according to a transcript released by the media outlet Tuesday.

The former president also suggested that the US would struggle to defend the island because of distance, saying “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away. It’s 68 miles away from China.”

The US maintains unofficial relations with Taiwan, under which it provides the island with the means for its defense. Taipei has for decades purchased weapons from Washington and only last year for the first time received US aid for arms support.

While there may be a wide latitude between campaign rhetoric and policy once an administration is in office, Trump’s comments cut a sharp contrast to those of Biden, who has been a staunch advocate of support for Taiwan and maintaining peace in the Taiwan Strait.

They’ve also caught the notice of Beijing and Taipei.

China’s Foreign Ministry, which has long slammed US arms transfers to Taiwan, on Wednesday said, “the Taiwan question is purely China’s internal affair and brooks no external interference.”

And in Taipei, Premier Cho Jung-tai insisted that Taiwan is willing to take more responsibility for its defense and maintaining peace.

“We are willing to do more in our shared responsibilities towards the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region. This is for our own defense and to ensure our own security,” Cho said.

But observers are skeptical of whether such a tone from Trump would be reflected in his administration, especially one likely to be stacked with more hawkish figures.

Trump is unlikely to be “in a position to change the fundamentals of US policy on Taiwan, or ignore Taiwan’s security,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at Washington-based think tank the Stimson Center.

Beijing, however, may see a boon in Trump’s use of similarly skeptical rhetoric toward other governments in the region such as Japan and South Korea.

While Biden has tightened ties with these American allies amid security concerns about China, Trump has taken a much more transactional view of Washington’s historical defense alliances and reportedly demanded as president that the two countries pay more for US troops stationed on their territory.

Vance, speaking generally of US “allies” on Wednesday, also nodded to such rhetoric warning of “no more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer.”

Tough trade talk

If elected again, Trump has also threatened to inflame economic frictions between Beijing and Washington – at one point floating upwards of 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports to the US – levels economists say would amount to a de facto decoupling of the world’s two largest economies.

In the Bloomberg Businessweek interview, Trump denied 60% tariffs but suggested he could raise tariffs to around 50% and that this would encourage American companies to manufacture in the US and not China. “Economically, they’re phenomenal,” he said.

The comments come with trade tensions between the US and China on the rise again, and Beijing looking to challenge US industrial policy on electric vehicles at the World Trade Organization – a move that followed Biden’s decision in May to raise levies on Chinese products including electric vehicles and their batteries.

And Beijing – which is grappling with its own economic woes – may be preparing for more friction if Trump takes office.

“China is watching the election very closely,” said Sun in Washington. The substance of Biden’s China policy – in terms of sanctions, tariffs and competition – has not been that different from Trump’s, she noted, and Biden has been keener on strengthening alliances and coalitions to counter China together.

“But the style of Biden’s China policy is more predictable and stabilizing. Since neither is China-friendly, Beijing at least prefers the predictability and stability of Biden.”

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CNN’s Wayne Chang contributed to this report.