Grappling with its worst drought in a century, Iraq bets on a controversial oil-for-water deal

By Mohammed Tawfeeq, CNN

(CNN) — Iraq, the historic “land between two rivers,” faces a crisis striking at its identity as the Tigris and Euphrates shrink dramatically amid severe drought and the increasing toll of upstream dams, helping create the country’s worst water shortages for decades.

Once symbols of abundance, the two rivers, which both originate in Turkey, have become the focus of a struggle forcing Iraq to use its most lucrative asset – oil – to secure its water.

The country of more than 46 million people, is experiencing a sharp decline in water supply due to a tangle of factors, including the construction of upstream dams in Turkey, Iran and Syria; broken and outdated water infrastructure after decades of war, sanctions and instability; and government mismanagement. Adding pressure is a severe, climate change-fueled drought, Iraq’s worst in nearly a century.

At the same time, demand is increasing due to growing urban populations and a thirsty agricultural sector, which consumes more than 80% of Iraq’s water resources.

Heavy rain and flash floods hit Iraq for several days this month, killing at least six people, according to the state-run Iraqi News Agency. However, Iraq’s dams still face a large water shortage after years of low rainfall, the country’s water resources ministry said in a statement Monday.

Approximately 60% of Iraq’s water comes from sources in neighboring Turkey, yet the country is currently receiving less water compared to previous years, said Mukhtar Khamis, environmental expert and head of the Iraqi Green Climate Organization.

Upstream dams on the two rivers, particularly those built by Turkey, are significantly restricting the flow of water to Iraq, he told CNN, resulting in a substantial reduction in water availability and worsening the country’s ongoing water scarcity crisis.

Years of corruption and mismanagement have also left Iraq in a vulnerable negotiating position when it comes to water-sharing agreements, experts said.

As its water crisis escalates, Iraq has entered a controversial cooperation deal with Turkey.

In November, the two countries formalized the multi-billion-dollar Water Cooperation Framework Agreement, under which Turkish firms will build new infrastructure to improve Iraq’s water efficiency and storage. The projects will be financed with Iraqi oil revenues, effectively an attempt to convert the country’s crude oil exports into water security.

Under the deal, Iraq will sell an agreed number of barrels of oil each day, with the proceeds deposited into a fund to pay Turkish companies for work on water infrastructure projects, said Torhan al-Mufti, water affairs adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.

Initial projects will include water harvesting dams and land reclamation initiatives, according to a Reuters report.

Ankara framed the initiative as mutually beneficial for regional stability and economic cooperation. “We in Turkey are keen to support Iraq’s security, development, and safety, and our support is absolute for this,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in Baghdad during the signing ceremony.

Iraq’s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein praised the deal as essential for protecting water security, food production, and economic stability. Baghdad had long been left vulnerable by the lack of formal treaties governing water from the Tigris and Euphrates, he said at the signing ceremony.

“For the first time, there is a clear and binding mechanism for water sustainability in the Tigris and Euphrates,” which commits both sides “to maintaining continuous water flow based on Iraq’s actual needs in agriculture, industry, and human consumption,” government water adviser al-Mufti told CNN.

The agreement, however, has drawn skepticism and concern from some Iraqi politicians and water experts.

Shurook Alabayachi, a water policy expert and politician based in Baghdad, said water is a human right and should not be a commodity tied to oil revenues. She warned the deal with Turkey “departs from internationally recognized principles of water diplomacy.”

It is not a solution to Iraq’s water crisis, she said, calling instead for “a long-term, sovereign, professional, and internationally aligned water policy,” including reforming the country’s agriculture sector.

Some fear the deal could weaken Iraq’s long-term control over its natural resources. Natasha Hall, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, warned that if Iraq becomes overly dependent on bilateral arrangements, its sovereignty could be jeopardized. Turkey could “have a very firm hold on its southern neighbor for the foreseeable future,” she told CNN.

Some have suggested the agreement is weighted in Turkey’s favor. It grants it critical leverage over Iraq’s most vital resource at a moment of vulnerability, said Gönül Tol, founding director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey Program.

Iraqi officials have pushed back on these criticisms. Water management will remain entirely under Iraqi sovereignty, al-Mufti told CNN.

Nevertheless, experts point to key advantages for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Tol said he sees the agreement as useful to shore up his domestic position — including remaining in power after the 2028 elections — as well as for regional diplomacy and energy security.

The deal fits Erdogan’s goal of expanding Turkey’s influence across the Middle East and could also help with energy security, Tol added, noting that US President Donald Trump has urged Erdogan to stop buying Russian oil. “Iraqi oil, which is comparable in quality to Russian oil, has become a natural substitute,” she said.

The Turkish government did not respond to CNN’s request for comment.

Lives upended by drought

For most Iraqis, the water crisis is not a policy debate or diplomatic tool but a daily struggle for survival. More than 168,000 people have been displaced by climate and environmental pressures, including drought, according to a recent report from the International Organization for Migration, a United Nations agency.

In recent years, thousands of farmers have taken temporary jobs or abandoned agriculture altogether as water shortages worsen, according to the Iraqi Federation of Agricultural Associations.

Ahmed al-Jash’ami, a former farmer from Iraq’s central Babel province, recalls watching his father die heartbroken as dwindling water supplies caused their orchard to wither and turn barren.

“We are farmers, generation after generation, I never imagined a day when we would see our farms and orchards die,” he said. Al-Jash’ami now works in a small shop selling construction materials.

Hussam Anizan, who comes from the outskirts of Fallujah, a city west of Baghdad, shares a similar story. His five-acre farm once produced dozens of crates of oranges every year, but the water crisis left him struggling financially, and he was forced to sell.

“Irrigation became impossible,” he told CNN. “I needed to provide for my children.” He now drives a taxi, while his former farmland has become a residential neighborhood. “It’s very painful to see my land turned into houses. I was heartbroken when I sold my farm,” he said.

Both men blame years of government mismanagement and corruption for deepening the crisis. They say farmers across Iraq have been pushed into new lives they never wanted.

Yet Anizan holds cautious optimism about the oil-for-water agreement. “Let’s see how this deal goes. Maybe we’ll be able to see the sun of hope again,” he said.

CNN’s Aqeel Najim and Nechirvan Mando contributed to this report.

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