Could the Republican party split over a Donald Trump nomination?

With all the events leading up to Super Tuesday, some might argue that the modern Republican party is no longer the “Grand Old Party” of Abraham Lincoln and Teddy Roosevelt. Some have gone further and argued it’s not even the party of conservative icons Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan.

“I think that the Republican party is changing before our eyes,” said Sen. Harry Reid, D – Nevada. “Donald Trump, Cruz, Rubio — they’re all on the same kettle. I mean, look at the — they’re all agreeing with Trump, in one way or another. So, you know, we’re seeing before our eyes a new Republican party.”

All of this and recent statements from Republican elected officials beg the question: Would a Donald Trump nomination create a rupture the party cannot overcome?

“I am not voting for Hillary Clinton. Given what we know about Donald Trump, I can’t vote for him either,” said Sen. Ben Sasse, R – Nebraska. “I took an oath to protect, defend the constitution. if those are the two major party nominees, and I hope they’re not, I have to look for a third party option.”

So what is the future of the Republican party?

At the start of this campaign, Donald Trump had said he would consider running third party if he wasn’t treated fairly in the nomination process. But now, rumblings are coming from major conservative sources that the Republican establishment is considering going outside the party if Trump captures the nomination.

According to national publications like Politico, the Washington Examiner, The Resurgent and more, GOP exit strategies and independent presidential bids are being considered in the top levels of the conservative movement.

While Donald Trump does continue to lead in the polls, his caustic comments have alienated many groups. He leads the polls of being seen as most unfavorable or whom people say they will never vote for.

It’s easy to see how establishment Republicans can feel like they’ve lost control of their party. Conservative donors are reportedly exploring ballot access rules in all fifty states.

Where it all leads is impossible to predict, but local party leaders like County Republican Chairman Adolpho Telles plan to support whoever gets the nomination.

“I would hope,” Telles said, “because we continue to talk about it, that when the election is over that the party’s going to get behind them. There will always be individuals that aren’t going to agree to that.”

UTEP political science professor Gregory Rocha said Trump is being seen as going counter to many Republican efforts.

“The party needs to expand,” Rocha said. “And there are those in the party who believe with – if Mr. Trump gets the nomination, the chances of that expansion outward are going to be hindered.”

With this season’s nomination race unlike any other in recent memory, what is the likelihood that the Republican party could significantly shift or even split? No one could have predicted the impact and staying power of Trump before this race started. But his division of even long time Republican voters is a serious concern for the party.

Some comments from Republican voters ABC-7 spoke with Tuesday:

“He makes me less nervous than anyone who’s running for Democrat.”
“Well, sometimes I feel like he’s too much of a loud mouth.”
“He’s a clown.”

“I think there’s people that think, that are concerned as to where the party’s going and what they’re doing,” Telles said. “And there’s always people that are going to say we disagree with the position of a certain candidate.”

Telles said a party split has been discussed at the local level. You have to go back decades to Ross Perot’s candidacy or even centuries to the 1824 election to find examples of realistic multi-candidate races in the U.S.

Rocha said with how unpredictable this race has been, a split and separate run isn’t out of the question.

“That could very well be,” Rocha said. “And again, I think it would be the more moderate, longstanding leadership within the party who are seeing power getting wrestled away from them.”

While local Republican party leaders have said they will stand with the eventual nominee, local voters ABC-7 spoke with said they would consider a third party conservative candidate.

One of the other possible outcomes from a conservative split could be an easy Democratic win. But there have been rumors of an independent run by a liberal candidate like former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg that could complicate that outcome even further.