What does a chance of rain in the ABC-7 Day forecast really mean?
It’s a question the StormTRACK Weather team hears on a regular; “You said there was a 40% chance for rain? Where’s the rain?” Well, that is what we call a P-O-P. It’s called the probability of precipitation, which is expressed as a percent in the weather forecast. National Weather Service Meteorologist Jason Laney said, “The chance of rain, or probability of precipitation (POP), is based on a mathematical formula that takes the forecaster’s confidence into account.” That formula is as follows: POP = Coverage x Confidence. When you see forecast graphics on ABC-7 StormTRACK such as the 7-Day Forecast, the Pop’s shown are for the area covering metro El Paso area. Meteorologist Jason Laney said, “If you see a 40 percent chance of rain, “there is a 40 percent chance that rain will occur at any given point.” Typically you will hear members of the ABC-7 StormTRACK Weather Team use P-O-P phrases like these” scattered” or “isolated storms.”
These words are also associated with a Pop:
10-20% includes “slight chance” and “widely scattered”
30-50% includes “chance” and “scattered”
60-70% includes “likely” and “numerous”
80-100% includes definitive types of precipitation such as rain, snow or showers.
If you see rain in the ABC-7 Day forecast, grab an umbrella; there’s a chance you could get hit with some showers. Remember you can always download the ABC-7 StormTRACK Weather and Traffic App for weather on the go.
