Record early voting in El Paso driven by young, irregular voters
El Paso is shattering early voting records this year because infrequent voters are flocking to the polls, analysis of county election data shows. Younger voters are also coming out in much larger numbers than in previous midterm elections.
More than 39,000 El Pasoans cast ballots in the first two days of early voting Monday and Tuesday, exceeding the turnout for all 12 days of early voting in the last midterm election in 2014.
With El Paso’s Beto O’Rourke on the ballot as the Democrats’ Senate nominee against Republican incumbent Ted Cruz, El Paso’s normally lethargic electorate is staging an unprecedented turnout.
Among those who voted Monday and Tuesday, 52 percent did not vote in the 2014 midterm election, at least not in El Paso.
Fourteen percent did not vote in El Paso during the 2016 presidential election. More than 2,500 of those voting – about 6 percent of all voters – registered to vote after the 2016 presidential election.
The large wave of early voting likely means El Paso will vastly exceed its number of ballots in 2014, when a record low 20 percent of registered voters went to the polls. That surge could have statewide consequences.
El Paso is more than 80 percent Hispanic and historically votes Democratic. In 2014, Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis won 60 percent of the vote in El Paso County, but because the turnout was historically low, her margin of victory was only about 19,000 votes.
If El Paso’s turnout this year is 30 percent instead of the 20 percent four years ago, O’Rourke’s victory margin could be 50,000 votes or more. If it reaches 40 percent – unprecedented for a midterm election over the past half century – O’Rourke’s margin could grow to 80,000 votes in El Paso County.
El Paso isn’t big enough by itself to tip Texas from its longtime status as a Republican bastion, but Democrats have to significantly increase turnout in predominantly Hispanic areas like El Paso to become competitive in statewide elections.
O’Rourke’s campaign has devoted a lot of resources on turning out younger voters, which historically has been a major challenge in midterm elections across the country. The first two days of voting results show younger El Pasoans are voting in much greater numbers than previously.
In 2014, only about 2,200 El Pasoans under the age of 30 cast ballots during the 12 days of early voting.
After the first two days of early voting this year, the number of under-30 voters already exceeds 3,600. Even with the huge growth in votes cast, younger El Pasoans still have room for improvement. They make up about 20 percent of the county’s registered voters, but so far have accounted for only 9 percent of votes cast.
