Here’s the latest sign the job market is cooling
By Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — The “Great Stay” deepened in November as the number of people who quit their jobs that month dropped to under 3.1 million, a level not seen since the height of the pandemic.
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, which was released Tuesday, also showed that hiring activity remained at a decade low, a further indication that a much cooler labor market is at hand.
“Workers are going to quit at higher rates when they feel more confidence that they’re going to find a better opportunity,” Elise Gould, senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute, told CNN on Tuesday. “That’s the best way that workers can get ahead and see stronger wage growth is to quit their job and find another one.”
While workers and employers may be sitting tight more often now, the pace of job growth and other key metrics indicate that the labor market remains on solid footing, Gould added.
“It’s still quite a strong labor market,” Gould said. “The unemployment rate is still low, the employment to population ratio is still high, there’s still meaningful wage growth.”
Job growth slowed last year, reflecting both the ongoing normalization of the labor market following the pandemic as well as ongoing pressures from a high-interest rate environment meant to stifle demand and tame inflation.
Through November, the US economy has added an average of 180,363 jobs per month, a pace more in line with what was seen during 2010 to 2019 (a period that included the longest stretch of job creation on record).
The final jobs report for 2024 is due out Friday morning, and economists are expecting employment growth to tally 156,500 for December, according to FactSet consensus estimates. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%, according to FactSet estimates.
Tuesday’s JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that layoff activity held fairly steady in November. Additionally, the number of job openings increased to 8.1 million, its highest level since May.
Job openings are a closely watched metric of how much demand there is for labor. Economists were expecting the number of open jobs to decrease slightly to 7.7 million from the original estimate of 7.74 million, according to FactSet.
The coming weeks and months could shift the narrative for the labor market, inflation and the overall economy, economists have cautioned, noting President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals around trade, taxes, government efficiency and immigration.
“The (JOLTS) report shows an entrenched labor market,” Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, said in a statement Tuesday. “Despite more job openings, hiring is weakening, workers are even more reluctant to quit their jobs, and layoffs are low. It feels like a wait-and-see scenario as employers and employees alike wait for the next administration’s policies.”
The-CNN-Wire
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