Israel assesses Hamas may not be able to return all remaining dead hostages, sources say

Exclusive by Ami Kaufman and Tal Shalev

(CNN) — Israel assesses that Hamas may not be able to find and return all the remaining dead hostages in Gaza, according to three Israeli sources, a fact that may complicate efforts to finalize a deal to end the war.

Sources say the Israeli government is aware that Hamas may not know the location of, or is unable to retrieve, the remains of some of the 28 remaining deceased hostages. The latest intelligence is believed to put the number in single figures; some sources had earlier suggested it may have been higher.

One of the sources said the assessments are based on Israeli intelligence reports, as well as messaging from Hamas and mediators in recurring rounds of negotiations. The reason for the difference in the two assessments was not clear.

There are 20 hostages who are believed to be alive, with grave concerns for the well-being of two of them.

During the latest negotiations for a hostage and ceasefire deal in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, Israel has demanded the return of all the hostages – both living and dead – as a condition for ending the war.

The three Israeli sources say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet have known for months that Hamas does not know the whereabouts of some of the deceased hostages and may therefore be unable to meet that demand. CNN has asked the Israeli government for comment.

The United States has also known about the issue for some time, with negotiators in the Biden administration aware that some hostages were held by factions in Gaza over which Hamas does not exert full control.

Barbara Leaf, Assistant Secretary of State for Middle Eastern Affairs under President Joe Biden, told CNN: “It’s been the case from the outset that they (Hamas) have not had control over all of the hostages.” Leaf said recovering the remains of some of the dead hostages could be difficult. “It’s far more likely they can recover all of the living hostages,” she said.

It is unclear how this uncertainty could affect the efforts to finalize the deal announced on Wednesday. One Israeli source said that Israel’s official position is that Hamas is responsible for all the deceased hostages and the Israeli government expects all of them to be returned. The source said that Hamas might use the uncertainty over its ability to return all the dead hostages to draw out the implementation of any ceasefire arrangements, and to insist that it would not return all remaining hostages until Israel agrees to a full military withdrawal from Gaza.

Another Israeli source expressed concern that Netanyahu might use the uncertainty as a pretext to derail talks. Critics of the Israeli prime minister, including opposition leaders and families of hostages, have repeatedly accused him of deliberately undermining negotiations to end the war, alleging he imposes new conditions for political reasons, particularly when agreements appear close.

However, other sources say that given the heavy American and regional pressure to secure a deal, Netanyahu is more likely to use the issue as leverage over the final details of an agreement, rather than torpedoing the entire framework under US President Donald Trump’s 20-point proposal.

Gal Hirsch, a former Israeli military commander who now acts as hostage coordinator for the Israeli government, said Thursday that a joint task force will be set up to try and find the missing remains of dead hostages. The task force will include representation from Israel, the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.

The uncertainty about deceased hostages is particularly sensitive in Israeli society, as it resonates with previous unresolved cases of missing soldiers. Lieutenant Hadar Goldin was killed and his body taken by Hamas during the seven-week war in Gaza in 2014. His body has never been handed over, and is now counted among the 48 living and dead hostages Israel demands be returned. Goldin’s family has campaigned for years for his return, citing Israel’s commitment to the principle of leaving no-one behind in conflict.

Ron Arad, an Israeli Air Force navigator, was captured when his jet was shot down over Lebanon in 1986. Nearly four decades later, his unresolved disappearance remains one of Israel’s most painful symbols.

One of Netanyahu’s closest confidants, Natan Eshel, wrote a message to a group of journalists last week, referring to the Gaza negotiations and saying “there will be some Ron Arads” – an indication that senior figures in the Israeli political establishment believe that some hostages’ bodies will never be returned.

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Additional reporting by Eugenia Yosef and Jennifer Hansler