Trump’s threatened tariffs over oil to Cuba put Mexico in a bind

By Uriel Blanco, Sol Amaya, Michael Rios, CNN

(CNN) — Mexico has found itself walking a diplomatic tightrope after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on countries that send oil to Cuba.

As both a key trading partner of the US and a crucial supplier of oil to Cuba, Mexico could be hit hard by the levies should it continue its shipments to the Caribbean island.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Friday warned the tariffs could “trigger a far-reaching humanitarian crisis” in Cuba that could affect its hospitals, food supply and other services.

But she did not say whether her country would cut its exports, which in 2025 accounted for 44% of Cuba’s foreign oil supply.

Instead, she said her government would ask the US to clarify the scope of Trump’s tariffs while also seeking alternative ways to help Cuba, which is already experiencing frequent blackouts from an energy crisis.

“Of course, we don’t want to risk further tariffs on Mexico, but rather, through diplomatic channels, we seek a dialogue and communication framework that prevents a serious situation for the Cuban people,” said Sheinbaum, who has previously described oil exports as “a sovereign decision” made by the state-owned oil company Pemex.

Trump on Thursday signed an executive order threatening to impose the tariffs. In it, he declared a “national emergency” and claimed that actions by the Cuban government constitute an “unusual and extraordinary threat.”

While the US has a long history of pursuing regime change in communist Cuba, a country governed by a socialist political system since 1961, the Trump administration has increased the pressure in recent weeks.

In a statement announcing the tariffs, it accused the “Cuban regime” of aligning itself with “hostile countries and malign actors, (and) hosting their military and intelligence capabilities” – including, it said, Russia’s largest overseas signals intelligence facility. It also accused Havana of providing a safe haven to terrorist groups “such as Hezbollah and Hamas” and of inciting “chaos by spreading communist ideology.”

Within Trump’s cabinet, a key supporter of regime change is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants who came of age immersed in Miami’s exile community, rising politically within a culture where memories of the island and a deep fear of socialism remained powerful forces.

Cuba warns of extreme living conditions

The Cuban government on Friday condemned Trump’s threat of tariffs, saying that if enacted they would subject the island’s inhabitants to extreme living conditions.

Cubans already face constant blackouts and long lines at gas stations from a dwindling supply of fuel. Cuban officials have said existing US economic sanctions are largely to blame for the country’s ailing energy sector, although critics also fault a lack of government investment in infrastructure.

Both blackouts and gas lines across the island have grown longer in recent days. Whole sections of Havana are bathed in total darkness each night, traffic lights are frequently out at major intersections, and several government-run radio and TV stations have suspended operations due to a lack of electricity and fuel to run generators.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Trump’s threats were being made under an “empty pretext” and accused him of trying to “suffocate” the Cuban economy.

“This new measure demonstrates the fascist, criminal, and genocidal nature of a cabal that has hijacked the interests of the American people for purely personal gain,” he said.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez accused the US of trying to blackmail and coerce other countries to join what he said would amount to a “total blockade” on fuel supplies.

Mirroring the language of Trump’s executive order, Rodríguez said Cuba was declaring an “international emergency” – though he did not say what that would entail.

The Venezuelan angle

Like Mexico, Venezuela also finds itself backed into a corner by the threatened tariffs.

Until recently, it had supplied Cuba with more than one third of its oil needs, according to energy industry analysts.

Those supplies have been disrupted since the US military’s capture of Venezuela’s leader Nicolas Maduro at the beginning of this month, after which Trump said the US would take control of the country’s oil reserves.

While Maduro’s former deputy Delcy Rodriguez is now nominally in charge of the country as acting president, it is unclear how much room she has to resist US pressure. She has met many of Washington’s demands, including opening the oil industry to foreign companies and releasing all known US citizens held in the country.

Even so, the Venezuelan government has joined Cuba in condemning Trump’s executive order, calling it a violation of international law, and expressing solidarity with the people of Cuba.

“Free trade is a core principle of international economic relations between sovereign states and cannot be subject to any type of coercion that impedes the free exchange of goods and services,” the Venezuelan government said Friday.

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CNN’s Patrick Oppmann contributed reporting from Havana.