A court race in Pennsylvania quietly has major implications for 2028

By David Wright, CNN

(CNN) — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is wading into a state Supreme Court race this fall that both parties say has far-reaching implications for the 2028 presidential race, upcoming midterms and future redistricting in the premier battleground state.

Shapiro, a potential 2028 contender himself, appears in an ad launching Tuesday for three Democratic justices on the ballot in November, warning Pennsylvanians that “the threats to our freedoms are very real.”

Pennsylvania voters will decide whether to grant new 10-year terms to the three justices in what’s known as a retention vote. Justices Kevin Dougherty, Christine Donohue and David Wecht face no opponents, only a yes-or-no vote on whether to extend their terms.

“They’ve proven we can count on them to protect a woman’s access to abortion and birth control — and stand up for all our freedoms,” Shapiro says in the ad. “Vote ‘yes’ for a Supreme Court that protects us.”

Only one justice has failed a retention vote in Pennsylvania history, 20 years ago, setting a high bar for Republicans. But sensing the stakes, the GOP is pouring resources into the state and Democrats like Shapiro are stepping up their efforts in kind.

If even two of the justices are voted out, liberals could lose their 5-2 majority on the state’s high court. Republicans would then have an opportunity in 2027 to flip the court’s balance of power ahead of the next White House race and any election litigation.

“We’ve only seen one of these justices knocked out because of retention,” said James Markley, communications director for the Pennsylvania Republican Party. “So in November, when we knock off all three, it’ll be a pretty big deal.”

“This is the most pivotal judicial retention in our state’s history,” said Eugene DePasquale, the new chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party. “For the people that thought the Wisconsin Supreme Court race earlier this year was important, this one is that on steroids.”

Pennsylvania is a perennial battleground for election litigation

Pennsylvania is one of the most important battleground states in the country; it has alternated between the parties at the presidential level over the last four elections and drew more campaign ad money than any other state in the 2024 cycle — over $1 billion, according to data from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

Since the pandemic election of 2020, Pennsylvania has also been the target of ferocious litigation. In the last two White House races, the liberal majority on the state’s high court court ruled in favor of Democrats’ arguments in key cases related to mail-in deadlines, provisional ballots and signature matching.

Flipping the ideological balance of the court ahead of the next White House campaign would have dramatic implications for future rulings on such contentious issues, particularly in a state with electoral margins as narrow as Pennsylvania.

“This is, in many respects, the most important race in the country that nobody’s talking about,” said state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, a vice chair of the Democratic National Committee.

The court will also weigh in on the next round of congressional redistricting after the 2030 census and could face myriad other significant cases covering abortion rights, environmental regulations and education policies.

“Whether we knock off two or three, that sets up a 2027 showdown for the court’s majority,” said Markley with the Pennsylvania GOP. “That’s a big deal, being prior to 2028 and also prior to the next round of redistricting. These judges have had a heavy hand in those cases in the past.”

The retention vote could also have more immediate consequences. Recalled justices can be replaced by interim appointments from Shapiro, but those appointments need approval from the state Senate, controlled by Republicans.

“It’s uncertain whether they would consent to Josh Shapiro’s appointments,” said Matt Brouillette, the CEO of the Commonwealth Partners, a conservative organization involved in the campaign opposing the justices.

Dougherty, Donohue and Wecht issued a joint statement to CNN noting that they had been recommended by the Pennsylvania Bar Association and endorsed by “labor, Planned Parenthood and statewide police organizations.”

“The three of us have proven our qualifications and commitment to the law, and will be honored to continue to serve the people of Pennsylvania,” the justices said.

With such high stakes, both state parties and national allies are stepping up their efforts, flooding voters’ mailboxes and screens. According to data from AdImpact, Democrats have spent about $4 million on advertising for the campaign, while Republicans have spent about $1.5 million, including bookings through November. Those totals are likely to rise.

Their opponents are arguing that it’s time for a change. Markley referenced a star player on the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning Super Bowl champions.

“Our chair has something he loves to say all the time: Saquon Barkley is possibly the best player in the NFL, and not even he gets a 10-year contract,” he said.

The headline on this story has been updated.

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