What early voting data says about NYC, Virginia and New Jersey elections heading into Tuesday

By Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — Early voting data suggests that the Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are heading into Election Day in a slightly stronger position than Kamala Harris was at the same time last year.

In New York City, Andrew Cuomo may have emerged in a stronger position than in the primary. But a key part of Zohran Mamdani’s base also surged through early in-person voting.

CNN’s experts analyzed the pre-election voting data in all three locations, comparing to 2024 in New Jersey and Virginia to better reflect the changes in early voting patterns over the last four years.

Although early voting analysis can provide hints about which candidates may be well positioned heading into November 4, it is impossible to know who pre-election voters supported or how candidates will do on Election Day, when many of the ballots will be cast.

Note: In all three locations, early in-person voting has concluded, while mail ballots can continue to arrive over the coming days.

New Jersey: A Democratic turnout advantage

In New Jersey, Democrats turned out at a higher rate than Republican voters relative to 2024 in both mail and early in-person voting, putting the Democratic candidate for governor, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill, in a stronger position than Harris was last year before Election Day. Harris eventually won the state by about 6 points.

Through the end of Thursday, registered Democrats led registered Republicans in mail ballot returns by over 41 points, a couple of points better than the 39-point gap at the equivalent point last year. But unlike last year, Democrats also held a nearly 2-point lead in in-person early voting. Last year at this time, Democrats trailed in in-person voting by 2 points.

As of the end of early in-person voting on November 2, Democrats represented a larger share of the total pre-election electorate than they did at this point last year. Registered Democrats led registered Republicans in total pre-election votes by 22 points, compared to a 16-point lead at this time last year, according to data from Catalist.

New York City: Older voters turned out more; younger voters caught up

Among registered Democrats, a group that will make up the lion’s share of New York City mayoral voters, older voters turned out more at the start of in-person early voting than in the primary, when strong backing from younger voters helped propel Mamdani to a surprise victory. But the electorate got younger through the early voting period and is considerably younger than in past mayoral elections.

The electorate is considerably younger than in past mayoral elections, and a CNN analysis of early voting data from the New York City Board of Elections found that daily turnout among Democrats got younger over the course of early in-person voting: While older voters outnumbered younger ones by about 50 percentage points on the first day of early voting, that dropped below 20 points on the final day.

Now, about 49% of registered Democratic early in-person voters (51% of all early in-person voters) are ages 50 and up, while 17% of Democratic voters are ages 18 to 29 (16% of voters overall).

That’s roughly the same as the total Democratic primary electorate, when about 48% were 50 or older and about 18% of voters were 18 to 29, according to data from L2.

Polls have shown that younger voters overwhelmingly favor Mamdani, while Cuomo, who is running as an independent, has a smaller lead among older voters.

This year’s turnout is also far younger than the city’s last mayoral election in 2021, when just 9% of voters were ages 18 to 29 and 62% were ages 50 and older.

The geographic distribution of Democratic votes was more favorable to Cuomo than it was in the June primary, with turnout strongest in precincts where Cuomo did best and relatively weaker in strong Mamdani areas. The most Cuomo-friendly precincts cast 177% of their primary early in-person totals while the most Mamdani-friendly precincts cast 132% of their early voting totals.

Still, if the precinct-level Mamdani vs. Cuomo vote from the primary stayed the same, the changes so far in geographic distribution alone wouldn’t be nearly enough for Cuomo to overtake Mamdani among Democratic early voters.

Virginia: Spanberger appears in slightly stronger position

While voters don’t register by party in Virginia, the geographic breakdown of votes cast so far suggests Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in slightly stronger position heading into Election Day than Harris was at the same point in last year’s election, when she won Virginia by less than 6 points.

The geographic distribution of early in-person votes and mail ballots is similar to what they were at this point last year. But mail ballots, in which Democrats typically perform better, make up a slightly larger share of the pre-election vote this year (22%) than they did at this point last year (19%), resulting in a geographic breakdown of the combined pre-election vote that is more Democratic-leaning relative to the same point in the 2024 election.

During early in-person voting, counties where Trump won last year averaged 62% of their in-person votes cast last year, while Harris-won counties finished at 60%. The worst performing counties were places where Trump won more than 75% of the vote – they finished at just 55% of the in-person votes they cast last year.

Harris-won counties finished in-person early voting strongly, narrowing the gap from 10 points to 2 points now, largely coinciding with an increased number of voting locations opening in large Democratic-leaning counties such as Arlington and Fairfax.

This story has been updated with additional details.

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