What early voting data says about NYC, Virginia and New Jersey elections

By Edward Wu, CNN

(CNN) — Early voting data suggests that Democratic candidates for governor in New Jersey and Virginia are heading into the final weekend in a slightly stronger position than Kamala Harris was at the same time last year.

In New York City, Andrew Cuomo may be in a stronger position than in the primary, but there are signs of increased activity from younger voters, a key part of Zohran Mamdani’s base.

CNN’s experts analyzed the pre-election voting data in all three locations, comparing to 2024 in New Jersey and Virginia to better reflect the changes in early voting patterns over the last four years.

Although early voting analysis can provide hints about which candidates may be well positioned heading into November 4, it is impossible to know who pre-election voters supported or how candidates will do on Election Day, when many of the ballots will be cast.

New Jersey: A Democratic turnout advantage

In New Jersey, Democrats have turned out at a higher rate than Republican voters in both mail and early in-person voting, putting the Democratic candidate for governor, US Rep. Mikie Sherrill, in a stronger position than Harris was last year at this point. Harris eventually won the state by about 6 points.

Through the end of Thursday, registered Democrats led registered Republicans in mail ballot returns by over 41 points, a couple of points better than the 39-point gap at this point last year. But unlike last year, Democrats also hold a nearly 2-point lead in in-person early voting. Last year at this time, Democrats trailed in in-person voting by 2 points.

Mail ballots also represent a larger portion of the pre-election vote so far. As a result, registered Democrats represent a larger share of the total pre-election electorate than they did at this point last year.

New York City: Older voters have turned out more; younger voters are catching up

Among registered Democrats, a group that will make up the lion’s share of New York City mayoral voters, older voters have turned out more so far than they did during the primary, when strong backing from younger voters helped propel Mamdani to a surprise victory. But the electorate is still younger than in past mayoral elections and has only been getting younger as the week has gone on.

A CNN analysis of early voting data from the New York City Board of Elections has found that through October 31, about 53% of registered Democratic voters (55% of all voters so far) are ages 50 and up, while almost 16% of Democratic voters are ages 18 to 29 (15% of voters overall).

That’s more weighted towards older voters than the total Democratic primary electorate, when about 48% were 50 or older and about 18% of voters were 18-29, according to data from L2.

Polls have shown that younger voters overwhelmingly favor Mamdani, while Cuomo, who is running as an independent, has a smaller lead among older voters.

This year’s turnout is still younger than the city’s last mayoral election in 2021, when just 9% of voters were ages 18 to 29 and 62% were ages 50 and older.

Over the course of the week, daily turnout among Democrats has gotten younger: while older voters outnumbered younger ones by about 50 percentage points on the first day of early voting, that dropped below 20 points on the seventh day.

The geographic distribution of Democratic votes has also been more favorable to Cuomo than it was in the June primary, with turnout strongest so far in precincts where Cuomo did best and relatively weaker in strong Mamdani areas. The most Cuomo-friendly precincts have cast 125% of their primary early in-person totals while the most Mamdani-friendly precincts have cast 85% of their early voting totals.

Still, if the precinct-level Mamdani vs. Cuomo vote from the primary stayed the same, the changes so far in geographic distribution alone wouldn’t be nearly enough for Cuomo to overtake Mamdani among Democratic early voters.

Virginia: Spanberger appears in slightly stronger position

While voters don’t register by party in Virginia, the geographic breakdown of votes cast so far suggests Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is in slightly stronger position heading into the final stretch than Harris was at the same point in last year’s election, when she won Virginia by less than 6 points.

The geographic distribution of early in-person votes has slightly favored Republicans, while the distribution of mail ballots is similar to what it was at this point last year. But mail ballots, in which Democrats typically perform better, make up a larger share of the pre-election vote this year (24%) than they did at this point last year (21%), resulting in a geographic breakdown of the combined pre-election vote that is more Democratic-leaning relative to the same point in the 2024 election.

Through Thursday, counties where Trump won last year are averaging 61% of their in-person votes cast at the equivalent point last year, while Harris-won counties are at just over 57%. The worst performing counties so far have been places where Trump won more than 75% of the vote – they’re at just 54% of the in-person votes they’d cast at this point last year.

And that gap between Trump- and Harris-won counties has been narrowing over the course of the last week, dropping from 10 points to 4 points now, largely coinciding with an increased number of voting locations opening in large Democratic-leaning counties such as Arlington and Fairfax.

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