CNN exit polls find voters in key races dissatisfied with Trump, concerned with economy

By Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

(CNN) — Last November, Donald Trump won a return to the White House amid broad national dissatisfaction with the state of the country. A year later, preliminary CNN exit polling finds, the first major electoral tests of the second Trump presidency take place with voters expressing similar pessimism and anti-incumbent sentiments despite the turnover in the Oval Office.

Across four closely watched contests — the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoral race in New York City and the redistricting-related Proposition 50 in California — majorities disapprove of Trump, with strong disapproval of his performance far outpacing strong approval. In Virginia, New Jersey and California, roughly half or more of the electorate sees their vote as sending a message to Trump. And that message is largely one of opposition, rather than support. That message has been heard loudest so far in Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the high-profile contest for governor.

At the same time, while all these places voted Democratic in last year’s presidential election, none currently give especially positive reviews to the Democratic Party. The party’s favorability rating hovers around the 50% mark in California and New York City — though the GOP is even more unpopular in those places. In New Jersey and Virginia, meanwhile, voters give roughly equal ratings to the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.

Views of the economy aren’t uniform. Most Virginia voters say that their state’s economy is excellent or good, even as a majority say that federal government cuts this year have had at least a minor effect on their family’s finances. Majorities in California, New York City and New Jersey, by contrast, call their state’s economic conditions not so good or poor. In each place, economic issues — taxes, cost of living, or the economy as a whole — dominate voters’ concern.

CNN Exit Polls are from the Voter Poll conducted by SSRS, which combines thousands of pre-election interviews with those conducted at polling places to reflect the opinions of the full electorate. That scope makes them a powerful tool for understanding the demographic profile and political views of voters in this year’s election. And their findings will eventually be weighted against the ultimate benchmark: the results of the elections themselves. Even so, exit polls are still polls, with margins for error — which means they’re most useful when treated as estimates, rather than precise measurements. That’s particularly true for the earliest numbers, which haven’t yet been adjusted to match final election results. Learn more about how this year’s surveys were conducted here.

Here’s a look at some of the dynamics shaping up in each key race:

Virginia

In Virginia, Spanberger’s victory in the governor’s race was powered in significant part by unhappiness with the state of the nation. A majority of voters said they disapproved of Trump — and roughly 9 in 10 of those voters supported Spanberger over her rival, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.

Closer to home, voters give Glenn Youngkin, the state’s outgoing Republican governor, majority approval. But Earle-Sears wasn’t able to hold onto enough of his supporters: Roughly one-quarter of voters who think he did a good job as governor still backed Spanberger to succeed him.

There’s a similar pattern when it comes to key issues in the state. While about half of voters said that societal support for transgender rights has gone too far, more than one-fifth in that group still support Spanberger over Earle-Sears, who made attacks on transgender rights a cornerstone of her campaign. By contrast, just over half of voters also say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far — and Spanberger is winning around 9 in 10 of them.

Spanberger won among voters who identify as political independents — a group that makes up roughly a third of this year’s electorate — and among female voters, voters with college degrees and the majority of voters in the state who say abortion should be legal in most or all cases. She also notched a significant advantage among voters from households where someone worked this year as a federal employee or was employed as a federal contractor.

Earle-Sears did win among the roughly 45% of voters who say that texts sent by Democratic state attorney general nominee Jay Jones are disqualifying — although Spanberger did get the votes of about 20% in that group. Spanberger denounced the texts but did not call for Jones to drop out.

New Jersey

New Jersey’s gubernatorial race, between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, takes place in the shadow of two unpopular incumbents: Trump is disliked by voters, but the state’s outgoing Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, also sees an approval rating that’s slightly underwater.

Those factors map closely onto Tuesday’s race: Roughly 9 in 10 voters who disapprove of Trump cast their vote for Sherrill, while roughly 8 in 10 who disapprove of Murphy are now backing a Republican to replace him.

The lion’s share of Ciattarelli’s supporters — nearly half — say it was most important to them to pick the candidate who’ll bring needed change, while Sherrill voters largely say they were looking for a candidate who’s honest or trustworthy, will work for people like them, or shares their values. Sherrill’s favorability rating is modestly higher than Ciatarrelli’s, and more than half say her campaign against him was mostly fair, while voters are split on the fairness of Ciattarelli’s campaign. But Ciattarelli’s supporters are likelier than Sherrill’s to say that their vote was mostly for their chosen candidate, rather than out of opposition to their rival.

Roughly 7 in 10 voters say that property tax rates are a major problem where they live, and about 6 in 10 say the same of electricity costs. More than half also call political corruption in the state a major problem.

Most voters who call the economy or health care the top issue in the state are backing Sherrill, while voters who are more focused on taxes or immigration largely support Ciattarelli.

New York City

New York City’s multi-candidate mayoral race sees big differences between the bases of support for Democrat Zohran Mamdani, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa. Nearly 90% of Mamdani’s supporters say their vote is to support him, rather than to oppose his rivals. Sliwa’s voters also see their ballot as a statement of support. By contrast, Cuomo’s voters are closely split between voting to support him and voting to oppose the other candidates.

Mamdani voters overwhelmingly call cost of living their top issue, while Cuomo voters are divided between cost of living and crime, and Sliwa voters largely see crime as the city’s biggest problem. And most of Mamdani’s supporters say it was most important either that their candidate would bring needed change, or that their candidate would work for people like them. Cuomo’s supporters broadly say they were looking for the candidate with the right experience, while Sliwa’s backers say they wanted either an honest and trustworthy candidate, or one who would work for people like them.

Although most voters say they’re holding steady or getting ahead financially, nearly 60% call cost of living the city’s most important issue. And more than 7 in 10 say the cost of housing where they live is a major problem, compared to about one-third who say crime is a major problem. About 4 in 10 call the candidates’ positions on Israel a major factor in their vote.

Roughly 1 in 6 voters say they’re casting their ballot in a mayoral election for the first time.

California

Voters in California are weighing a measure with national implications: Proposition 50, a ballot measure to temporarily enact a new congressional map drawn by Democrats in response to Republican-driven redistricting in other states. Roughly 7 in 10 say it’s very important to them which party controls Congress.

An overwhelming majority of voters say they’d generally prefer state congressional district lines to be drawn by a non-partisan commission than the party in power. But those voting “yes” on the measure also broadly see it as a response to GOP-led redistricting elsewhere: around 80% say they see it as a way to counter the changes made by Republicans in other states, rather than the best way of drawing congressional districts.

Overall, about half of California voters say that neither party is handling the redrawing of congressional district lines fairly, with the rest more likely to say that only the Democrats are taking a fair approach than that only the Republicans are.

Around three-quarters of California voters say they’re dissatisfied with or angry about the way things are going in the U.S., and about half say they view their vote as a way to oppose Trump. More than 6 in 10 say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far, and most say the governor should not cooperate with the Trump administration on its efforts. A majority also oppose the idea of the federal government sending the National Guard into major cities in California.

More than 80% say that the cost of living in their area is unaffordable, and the economy far outpaces immigration, health care, crime or climate change as the top issue facing the state.

The CNN Voter Poll conducted by SSRS was conducted from October 22nd -November 4th, and includes representative samples of voters in California, New Jersey and New York City. The Voter Poll combines data collected from verified registered voters online and by telephone, with data collected in-person from Election Day voters at 30 precincts each in Virginia and New York City and from 29 precincts in New Jersey. Respondents could complete the poll in English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error for voters, accounting for design effects, is expected to be approximately plus or minus 2.0 percentage points in California, 2.1 percentage points in New Jersey, 2.2 percentage points in New York City, and 2.1 percentage points in Virginia.

This story has been updated with additional details.

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