Will Trump gloat tonight? Dems are in chaos and he’s about to be acquitted

On the eve of his impeachment acquittal and on the night of what could be his final State of the Union address, President Donald Trump was not the overriding story in the land as Americans waited for the first formal sign of who will face him in November. (Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in the early lead.) Yet Iowa Democrats were in disarray after app troubles delayed their caucus count, while Trump’s team appeared organized and in control.

The Senate was back in session all day Tuesday, with members finally allowed to make formal speeches, before breaking ahead of the big speech.

Follow live coverage of Trump’s State of the Union address, which begins just after 9 p.m. ET. CNN will be fact-checking the President. I’m going to do a contextual annotation of his remarks. The latest on the speech and the Iowa results will be all over television and CNN.com.

Seriously, Iowa?

A huge mess

Democrats looking for answers found a massive screwup instead after the botched Iowa caucuses continue to echo throughout the land. Read the latest about how a coding error and jammed phone lines led to the nuclear meltdown that appears to have caused it all.

Buttigieg, Sanders lead in Iowa

The Iowa Democratic Party released partial results nearly a day after the caucuses took place and they showed a tight race between Buttigieg and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Massachusetts’ Sen. Elizabeth Warren is a step back and former Vice President Joe Biden is in fourth, with Minnesota’s Sen. Amy Klobuchar in double digits.

If there’s a moment when party elders more loudly worry about Sanders and whether a socialist can take on the nationalist President, this might be that time. Meanwhile, if Buttigieg can hang on to a slim lead, his surge will be the overriding story of the Iowa results.

I wrote last night that this is surely the end of the Iowa caucuses as the nation’s first primary test.

Get the latest on the results here.

Buzz vs. billions; Bloomberg doubles down

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is pouring gobs of his own money into the race, made a show of doubling his monetary effort, hoping to step into the chaos after Iowa, where he didn’t try to compete, ahead of next month’s Super Tuesday primaries around the US, where he hopes to clean up. There are more people working on Bloomberg’s campaign than for any other candidate.

What will Trump say?

Certainly he’ll brag about his replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which recently passed Congress. CNN’s John Harwood writes about how Trump can (and will) use the economy to his benefit.

But will the President bring up Democrats’ mess in Iowa? Will he mention impeachment? White House spokesman Hogan Gidley said the word “impeachment” does not appear in the formal remarks but didn’t rule out that Trump will allude to it in some way. In other words, it’s all on “teleprompter Trump” to stay on script, reports Jim Acosta.

Note: Close followers of this newsletter will recall that President Bill Clinton similarly delivered a State of the Union address before his acquittal in 1999. He did not mention impeachment, but he did talk about bringing the country together. Odds that Trump does that? Slim.

Republicans fall into line

During the speechifying that precedes tomorrow’s vote to acquit Trump in the Senate, we’ve seen nearly every Republican announce they’ll acquit the President.

That doesn’t mean they’re happy with his behavior. But they will, in this case, allow it.

Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican who was one of the Senate’s swing votes on calling witnesses, joined in Tuesday.

“I do not believe that the House has met its burden of showing that the president’s conduct, however flawed, warrants the extreme step of immediate removal from office,” she said.

Trump will hear that part and likely ignore the criticisms she also laced into her speech.

We have not yet heard from Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, Republicans’ wild card.

Awkward support

Sen. Cory Gardner, the endangered Colorado Republican, voted last week not to hear witnesses. But he absolutely will not say if what Trump did is wrong.

“We’re still in the middle of this trial,” Gardner said when asked if Trump’s conduct was appropriate. “We still have tomorrow to deliberate and consider. I made my comments about witnesses, and I’m not going to go on-screen now that I still think we’re in the middle of an important process.”

OK, dude.

Democrats still on the fence

We also still don’t know how three key moderate Democrats will vote. West Virginia’s Sen. Joe Manchin wants to censure Trump, but that effort is not likely to make it to the Senate floor.

Manchin is still a maybe on acquittal.

Alabama’s Sen. Doug Jones, who lucked into his seat after a special election and is the most at-risk Democrat in November, said he has “tentatively” decided. But we don’t know what the tentative decision is quite yet.

Neither he nor Arizona’s Sen. Kyrsten Sinema have given floor speeches. So there are up to three Democrats who could break with their party.

Read more from CNN’s Jeremy Herb about the votes.

What are we doing here?

The American system of government has been challenged to deal with a singular President and a divided country that will decide whether he should get another four years in the White House.

Stay tuned to this newsletter as we keep watch over the Trump administration, the 2020 presidential campaign and other issues of critical interest.