Trump announced his 20-point Gaza peace plan. What comes next?
By Oren Liebermann, Mostafa Salem, Nadeen Ebrahim, CNN
(CNN) — US President Donald Trump called it “potentially one of the great days ever in civilization” as he laid out his administration’s 20-point proposal for a comprehensive end to the war in Gaza. In statements alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, Trump said, “We are beyond very close.”
It’s the sort of hyperbolic language that we’ve come to expect from the US president, but is it grounded in realistic expectations?
The plan calls for Israel to release 250 Palestinian prisoners with life sentences, as well as 1,700 Palestinians detained since the start of the war, in exchange for Hamas freeing 48 hostages, 20 of whom are believed to be alive. Hamas members can be granted amnesty after that if they “commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons.”
Israel will gradually withdraw from Gaza as a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF), led by Arab partners, takes over security in the battered territory, according to the plan. Meanwhile, a Palestinian committee, overseen by an international body dubbed the “Board of Peace,” will run Gaza until a reformed Palestinian Authority is ready to take over. The proposal recognizes the aspiration for a Palestinian state and tries to present a “credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood.”
Netanyahu said he supports the plan, but Israel has not yet officially accepted, as approval requires a formal cabinet vote. The plan itself is still not finalized, since Hamas will have some time to offer feedback and seek changes.
Will Hamas accept the deal?
Trump and Netanyahu have shifted the focus now to Hamas’ response. Key mediators Qatar and Egypt are set to hold meetings with Hamas in Doha on Tuesday evening to discuss the proposal. Turkey, a Hamas ally that houses some of its leaders, will also be part of those talks.
The plan appears to cross several of Hamas’ previously declared red lines, including decommissioning the group’s weapons and barring it from taking part in the future governance of Gaza. Under the proposal, all of Hamas’ infrastructure above and below ground will be destroyed, with the supervision of independent monitors, “and not rebuilt.”
Trump’s peace plan has backed Hamas into a corner, leaving the militant group to face an existential dilemma.
“It is reasonable to assume that Hamas will refuse it,” wrote former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) intelligence chief Tamir Hayman and Ofer Guterman, a senior researcher in conflict resolution at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv.
For Hamas, one clause specifically creates a major problem. Clause 17 states that, even if Hamas declines the proposal, the increase in humanitarian aid and the transfer of conquered territory from the Israeli military to an international force will proceed.
Hayman and Guterman wrote that “if Hamas rejects the deal, the initiative, as noted, grants Israel the freedom to continue deploying the IDF to clear areas under Hamas control, alongside advancing processes of political, security, and civil stabilization in areas cleared of Hamas.”
While most of the international community, including Arab and Muslim states, are pressuring Israel to stop fighting, they are equally clear that Hamas must disarm immediately.
In an interview with CNN last week, senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad underlined how far that demand is from the group’s intentions.
“The (armed wing) of Hamas is a legitimate and legal weapon, which is used all the time against an occupation,” he said.
If a Palestinian state were established, Hamad added, Hamas’ weapons would be directed to the Palestinian army.
“But you could not exclude Hamas from the Palestinian … questions and Palestinian situation, because Hamas is playing a positive role,” he said.
“We will never surrender,” Hamad added. “We will never surrender.”
What will Netanyahu do?
The Trump proposal has widespread international support. In a joint statement, eight Arab and Muslim nations backed the plan, saying that it “creates a path for a just peace on the basis of a two-state solution.” The Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the occupied West Bank, also supported the plan.
Netanyahu broadly faces two possibilities: Hamas rejecting the plan and Hamas accepting the plan. Let’s deal with each one separately.
If Hamas says no
This may have been Netanyahu’s plan all along. The Israeli leader spoke with his far-right allies after the deal was unveiled and said he was skeptical Hamas would accept the proposal. That would allow him to double down on his plans for the war in Gaza with Trump’s full backing “to do what you would have to do.”
For Netanyahu, this path is very straightforward, since it entails Israel continuing the war that it’s already fighting. The Israeli leader’s far-right allies would keep supporting him and his war effort, and his government would remain intact.
If Hamas says yes
This complicates things for Netanyahu, quickly and dramatically. Ending the war and bringing the hostages home have tremendous domestic support, but not from the far-right lawmakers who are crucial to keeping the prime minister in power. If this proposal is approved and the war ends, they would likely bolt his government. Netanyahu has the support of the opposition for a comprehensive ceasefire, but that leaves his fate in the hands of his political enemies.
Netanyahu could simply go for it – bring home the hostages, end the war and try to pursue regional normalization – but all of this would leave him facing elections in which he is currently badly trailing in opinion polls. And Netanyahu, perhaps above all else, is a politician.
What role will the US and other countries play on the ground?
Trump’s plan requires a tremendous level of international involvement, and likely for a number of years. The US president needs the Arab states to put pressure on Hamas to accept the proposal, for a start.
But that’s only the beginning. The so-called “Board of Peace” would oversee a “technocratic, apolitical Palestinian committee” in charge of the daily governance of Gaza. That board would be led by Trump himself, along with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and “other members and heads of state.”
Arab countries and other international partners are required to set up the temporary ISF to deploy to Gaza, which would include Palestinian police forces. The proposal relies on these forces to handle security as the Israeli military gradually withdraws from Gaza. The proposal also talks about investment plans and special economic zones that could take years to come to fruition.
Though it doesn’t explicitly lay out a timeline for how long such a force might be required, it’s clear from the proposal that this is a multi-year commitment from the international community to oversee and run Gaza.
Crucially, the Trump proposal lacks key details throughout the most important sections. The only clearly delineated timeline is the end of the war, freeing the Israeli hostages and the release of Palestinian detainees. But all of this takes places within the first few days of the proposal, and that’s only if it’s approved by both Israel and Hamas.
The decommissioning of Hamas weapons offers few details on who would carry this out or how they would do it. The proposal simply calls for an “agreed process” under “independent monitors.”
According to a map provided with the 20-point plan, Israel only has to withdraw from most of Gaza after an international security force is established and mobilized, a process that could take years.
What are Palestinians saying?
Palestinians had mixed reactions to the news, with some hopeful for an end to the conflict, while others expressed skepticism and distrust toward the plan.
“People are holding on to hope. … Maybe the plan will give a chance for a breakthrough, but to be honest we do not trust Trump or Netanyahu,” said Atta Al Jazzar, a Gaza resident.
“I do not support the plan, but there is no alternative. The alternative is the destruction of the Palestinian people and their displacement,” he added.
Another resident of northern Gaza, Mohamed Mansour, said he supports any plan that will end the war.
“Let people live. … We are tired. We want the war to end today, not tomorrow,” said Mansour, who lost his wife and children in the war.
Raed Sobh, another Palestinian resident of Gaza, said he was pessimistic about the plan, expressing distrust of Trump.
“Even before (Trump became president) he’s said, ‘I will stop wars … bring peace to Middle East,’ and nothing happened. He’s been here for a year. Nothing has changed.”
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