Sudan’s bloody conflict is plagued by foreign influence – here is what we know

By Ivana Kottasová, CNN

(CNN) — The horrifying reports of the massacre of hundreds of Sudanese civilians after the Darfur city of El Fasher was captured by the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) last week were the latest chapter in a brutal conflict that has killed more than 150,000 people over the past two and a half years.

But while the war in Sudan has most often been portrayed as an internal conflict between two warring generals, the murky involvement of several foreign powers makes the conflict far more complex – and deadly.

Sudan is seen by many as strategically important within the wider region. A bridge between the Middle East and Africa, Sudan controls some 500 miles of Red Sea coast along a major shipping route. It has plenty of agricultural land and significant gold deposits. It is the world’s top producer of gum arabic, a food, pharmaceutical and cosmetics ingredient. It also plays a key role in water diplomacy in the region, with some 400 miles of the Blue Nile flowing through its territory.

On Thursday, facing mounting international pressure over the reported massacre in Darfur, the RSF said it had agreed to enter a humanitarian truce proposed by four countries, known as the Quad: the United States, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. A US State Department spokesperson said the US continued to engage directly with the RSF and the rival Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) “to facilitate a humanitarian truce.” It urged both sides to accede to it, “given the immediate urgency of de-escalating the violence and ending the suffering of the Sudanese people.”

Three of the same countries involved in brokering the potential truce – the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt – have, along with Russia, been accused by experts, human rights watchdogs and several Western governments of trying to influence the conflict in Sudan by various means, including by supplying weapons, financial and logistical support and by offering diplomatic backing.

All four initially supported the Sudanese military when it ousted long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and when it consolidated its power over the country in a coup in 2021.

But when the two leading figures behind the coup – RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, and Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in charge of the SAF – began fighting each other, the foreign powers had to choose whom to support – and their involvement became even murkier.

Much is at stake. “Whoever controls Sudan is in a position to have influence in the broader region, in the Horn of Africa, as well as sub-Saharan Africa,” said Charles Ray, a retired US diplomat who served as the US Ambassador to Cambodia and Zimbabwe and is now chair of the Africa Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Here is what we know about some of the alleged players.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE has been repeatedly accused of supplying weapons to Dagalo’s paramilitary RSF.

Experts and human rights campaigners have traced weapons found in Darfur back to the UAE, and under the Biden administration, the United States – a key ally of the UAE – outlined links between a number of companies based in the Gulf nation and the RSF rebels.

The UAE has vehemently denied the allegations, even though an expert panel appointed by the United Nations Security Council said last year they were “credible.”

Several US lawmakers have repeatedly tried to block US arms sales to the UAE over the allegations, and last week the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee called for the RSF to be officially designated as a terrorist organization. In the same statement, the committee said that “foreign backers” including the UAE have “fueled and profited from the conflict.” The committee did not specifically call for the US to stop arms sales to the UAE.

Khalil al-Anani, a professor of politics and visiting researcher at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University, told CNN that while the UAE was involved in Sudan “primarily for economic objectives — to control its natural wealth, including agriculture and gold,” there were other reasons too.

He said the UAE “does not want to see a successful democratic transition in Sudan.”

“This fits into its broader regional campaign against the Arab Spring movements; for more than a decade, (the UAE) has been a main sponsor of counter-revolutionary forces across the Arab world,” he said.

The links between the UAE and the RSF militia date back beyond the current conflict. RSF chief Hemedti is well connected in the UAE through some of his family members, who US officials say control a web of companies based in the Gulf state.

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has sanctioned several of these companies, saying they were involved in supplying weapons to the RSF and in financing the force by selling gold sourced from mines in RSF-controlled areas to merchants in Dubai.

OFAC said these companies were controlled by Hemedti, his brothers Algoney Hamdan Dagalo Musa and Abdul Rahim Dagalo, or other people closely linked with him.

When announcing the sanctions against Musa, OFAC specifically said he resides in Dubai and is involved in “RSF efforts to procure weapons and other military materiel.”

Anwar Gargash, the top diplomatic adviser to the UAE leader, called the reports about UAE’s involvement with the RSF “fake news.”

“Unfortunately… with fake news, with all sorts of media campaigns, there are attempts to really picture us in a different light. But this is what we want: We want negotiations, we want transition to civilian rule and most importantly we need a ceasefire,” Gargash said.

Separately, the UAE’s embassy in Washington, DC, reached out to CNN this week following publication of an earlier CNN report mentioning its alleged involvement in Sudan, rejecting the claim and saying it has “consistently supported regional and international efforts to achieve an immediate ceasefire, protect civilians, and ensure accountability for violations committed by all warring parties.”

“We categorically reject any claims of providing any form of support to either warring party since the onset of the civil war,” a UAE official said in the note sent to CNN.

The official pointed to a report published by the UN expert panel on Sudan this April, which does not include allegations of UAE involvement, unlike previously published iterations of this report.

But a source with knowledge of the situation told CNN that UN experts did find what they believed was credible evidence of the UAE supplying weapons to the RSF, including tracing munitions previously exported to the UAE from Bulgaria in Darfur. This evidence was not included in the April report. CNN has reached out to the UN for comment.

The Bulgarian government told CNN it did not issue any permits for the export of defense-related products to Sudan.

Separately, Amnesty International published a detailed report earlier this year alleging that Chinese weapons, including AH4 howitzers, had been found in Darfur. The UAE is the only country confirmed to have imported these specific weapons from China, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

CNN has asked the UAE government for comment on these specific allegations.

The country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the howitzers in question “have been available on the international market for nearly a decade.”

“The assertion that only one country has procured or transferred this system is invalid,” the ministry told CNN, despite the records showing otherwise. CNN has reached out to the Chinese manufacturer of the weapons for comment.

The UAE ministry did not address a question about the Bulgarian-made munitions.

But in a rare admission of diplomatic failure, Gargash said at an event in Bahrain on November 2 that the international community made a “mistake” not to “put our foot down” when the two generals overthrew the civilian government in 2021.

The UAE was among a handful of countries, alongside Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and China, not to condemn the coup when it took place.

“But it was a time when Sudan was just coming out of American sanctions and we thought, no, let us get Sudan out of the American sanctions. Clearly, what happened later is the relationship of the two generals deteriorated and led Sudan to the current civil war that we are seeing today,” he said.

Selma el Obeid, an independent researcher who has been studying the situation in Sudan and the wider region for more than a decade, said the military cooperation between the UAE and RSF goes well beyond weapon transfers.

“For the UAE, the most important thing is to get (access to) the RSF militia, so they can use them elsewhere,” she told CNN.

Sudanese troops were fighting in Yemen as part of the Saudi-led coalition against Iran-backed Houthi rebels there before the 2021 coup in Sudan. In 2019, Hemedti confirmed Sudanese fighters were in Yemen and said their support for the coalition would continue.

Egypt

Neighboring Egypt supported Al-Burhan and Hemedti when they launched their coup to remove al-Bashir, even conducting a series of joint military exercises in 2021 and 2022.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is a former general who swept into power when he led the 2013 military coup, which removed from office Egypt’s first democratically elected president. Sisi has since cracked down on dissent and civic freedoms. Multiple international organizations, including the UN and the Human Rights Watch, have raised serious concerns over the human rights situation in Egypt.

“A free and democratic Sudan (would) expose all of the problems in Egypt and that doesn’t make it easier for the government there to maintain control,” Ray, the former US diplomat, told CNN.

After the two generals fell out, Cairo made it clear it saw al-Burhan and the SAF as the legitimate power in Sudan. The government has held repeated meetings with al-Burhan’s ministers, providing diplomatic backing. At one of these meetings last month, the Egyptian foreign ministry specifically endorsed the SAF, with a statement expressing Egypt’s “commitment to Sudan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the vital role of its national institutions, particularly the Sudanese Armed Forces.”

Hemedti has in the past accused Egypt of supplying weapons to the SAF and attacking the RSF – allegations Egypt has rejected.

CNN has asked the Egyptian government for a comment.

As its immediate neighbor, Egypt has a multitude of reasons to be interested in Sudan’s future.

“Egypt is involved mainly due to national-security concerns, particularly the implications of Sudan’s instability on the Nile River, Egypt’s lifeline,” al-Anani of Georgetown University said, adding that there is another key motivation for Cairo: “To prevent the emergence of a democratic system in Sudan after al-Bashir’s fall.”

He added, however, that Egypt’s support is limited, because Cairo is “constrained by its heavy economic dependence on the UAE, which provides Sisi’s regime with massive financial assistance.”

There are practical considerations, too.

“Egypt also fears the humanitarian consequences of the war: the influx of tens of thousands of Sudanese refugees has added pressure to an already fragile economy,” al-Anani said, while Ray also pointed to Egypt’s long-running water security issues.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been locked in a conflict over water for more than a decade, ever since Ethiopia announced its intention to build the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile. The dam was officially inaugurated in September, amid loud protests from Egypt, which relies on the Nile for some 90% of its freshwater supply.

Sudan, sitting between Ethiopia and Egypt, is a key player in the dispute. “Having Sudan compliant and on their side is a plus (for Egypt) in the competition with Ethiopia,” Ray noted.

Saudi Arabia

On the surface, Riyadh maintains neutrality, calling for a Sudanese solution to the conflict and co-sponsoring mediation efforts with the US.

But like Egypt, observers say Saudi Arabia has subtly supported al-Burhan and his SAF, providing him with diplomatic backing.

The country played a prominent role in the evacuation of thousands of people from Sudan, most of them foreigners, in the early weeks of the fighting.

Saudi Arabia has made it clear it sees Sudan as its immediate neighbor and its main effort has been to maintain stability along the Red Sea – a key trade channel central to Saudi Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans for the Saudi economy.

CNN has reached out to Saudi Arabia for comment.

Ray said that like the UAE, Saudi Arabia has a deep economic and strategic interest in Sudan, including making sure it is not overshadowed by its regional rivals.

“There are economic benefits to the Saudis being involved in Africa, both in Northern Africa and in the sub-Saharan (Africa), where they’re also showing up more and more, but I think also they probably look at some of their competitors being there, and it’s as much being able to keep up with the competition as anything else,” Ray said.

Russia

While busy fighting its own war in Ukraine, Russia has also seen Sudan as an opportunity to deepen its influence in Africa.

The US has accused Russia of “playing both sides of the conflict to advance its own selfish political objectives at the expense of Sudanese lives.”

CNN has previously reported that Russian mercenary group Wagner was supplying RSF with missiles through Syria, Libya and the Central African Republic.

The mercenary group for years propped up militant groups and authoritarian regimes in the Sahel in exchange for mineral resources — including huge concessions in Sudan’s gold mining industry.

Wagner’s involvement in Sudan apparently caught the attention of Ukraine too. Kyiv reportedly conducted a series of attacks on the RSF in 2023. A CNN investigation into the attacks concluded that Ukraine was likely behind them, a claim Kyiv declined to confirm or deny.

Russia’s involvement became more complicated after Wagner’s failed mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2023 and the subsequent death, in a plane crash, of its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin has since then attempted to absorb Wagner and its fighters into the Russian military and assert direct control over paramilitary groups that have taken over Wagner operations.

However, while Wagner openly supported Hemedti, the Kremlin has been negotiating with al-Burhan and his forces. Seeking access to the Red Sea, Moscow has been trying to get Sudan’s agreement to build a naval base in Port Sudan.

CNN has asked the Russian government for comment.

Ripe for exploitation

Al-Anani told CNN that he believed there was “no neutral actor in the Sudanese conflict.”

“Every party has its own goals and intervenes to pursue its interests. Controlling (Sudan) means holding influence over the entire sub-Saharan region,” he told CNN.

The years of horrific violence have weakened Sudan, plunging its institutions into chaos and making its population more vulnerable and poorer. All of that, al-Anani said, makes it ripe for exploitation by foreign powers.

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