Last nuclear treaty between US and Russia nears expiration as Trump and Putin trade testing threats

By Kylie Atwood, CNN

(CNN) — US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spent weeks trading threats to restart nuclear tests, an escalation kicked off by Putin’s boasts about tests of the Poseidon nuclear powered missile in late October.

Days later Trump declared that he had ordered the first US nuclear test in three decades.

The leaders’ provocative public statements, including a Russian reply that it too would explore restarting nuclear weapons testing, have raised global concerns about a new nuclear arms race. Behind the scenes, both sides are also eyeing a critical upcoming deadline: February 4, when the singular remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the nations is set to expire.

The New START treaty limits both countries to a maximum of 1,550 deployed long-range nuclear warheads on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. After a five-year extension signed by President Joe Biden, the treaty is set to expire early next year with little indication of momentum towards a new agreement.

Trump’s National Security Council called a meeting with nuclear weapons experts during the lead-up to summit between Trump and Putin in August, according to four sources familiar with the meeting.

The wide-ranging discussion included the potential benefits of extending the current cap on deployed nuclear weapons that the US and Russia have agreed to, whether or not to expand the size of the US nuclear arsenal and the status of the US nuclear triad, the sources said.

The White House wanted to be prepared for any possible nuclear discussion between the two leaders of the world’s greatest nuclear arsenals.

But the leaders’ meeting ended without momentum towards ending the Ukraine War or the announcement of any nuclear weapons agreement.

When Putin publicly proposed an extension of the single lasting nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia weeks later Trump responded positively.

“It sounds like a good idea to me,” Trump said.

Still, more than a month later, neither side says ongoing talks to achieve that goal are ongoing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday there are conversations about “potentially” speaking to Russia about the treaty.

Russia suspended participation in a critical monitoring mechanism in the treaty in 2023, though it was already essentially paused due to Russia’s refusal to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities. Those inspections were paused during the COVID-19 pandemic but never resumed after the pandemic ended largely because of US opposition over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, both sides appear to have maintained adherence to the treaty’s cap on strategic nuclear weapons.

Questions over whether or not those caps will remain in place come as the Russians are testing new nuclear systems – though there are no reports of warhead testing — and the Chinese are rapidly developing and expanding their nuclear and ballistic arsenal.

Experts are not worried about an overnight calamity if there is no form of an agreed to cap, but it would be the first time in decades the US and Russia could deploy long-range nuclear weapons without restraint. That situation could trigger dangerous miscalculations.

“The biggest worry is that for the first time since 1991, the US would not have any mutual restraint with Russia on strategic weapons,” said Corey Hinderstein, the vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for Nuclear Peace. “Along with the restraint also came lots of other mutual verification – and to be blind in that way for the first time in more than 30 years has the potential to lead to misunderstanding, miscalculation, and a lack of engagement that could be important in fending off a crisis.”

Some experts point out that a political agreement between the two sides to agree to maintain the treaty’s cap on deployed nuclear weapons would be effective and could be done relatively quickly.

Russian officials have indicated the country will not pursue their proposal of an extension indefinitely. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister has called Putin’s suggestion of renewing a “limited offer for a limited time” in at least one private setting, one source familiar with the remarks said.

The US has not officially responded to Russia’s proposal, two sources said. There is mounting Republican pressure not to agree to an extension of the deal, but Trump has expressed an interest in limits on nuclear weapons and arms control not just with Russia, but also with China.

“The president will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline,” said a White House official. “President Trump has spoken repeatedly of addressing the threat nuclear weapons pose to the world and has indicated that he would like to keep limits on nuclear weapons and involve China in arms control talks.”

To extend, or not to extend

Russia’s testing of the nuclear-powered underwater Poseidon drone and a nuclear-capable cruise missile came just after Putin’s proposal to extend the treaty in what appeared to be Russian efforts to pressure the US to the table. But the moves were “counterproductive,” explained one US official.

While the weapons’ development wasn’t covered by the treaty, “testing them frustrated US officials who viewed the move as saber rattling by Russia, the official said.

“They also very clearly realized that extending New START would do nothing to prevent Russia from further tests of those systems,” the official added.

If anything, those tests pushed Trump further way from wanting to discuss a follow-on agreement with Putin, sources said.

Top nuclear and energy officials are due to meet this week with Trump to try to dissuade him from conducting nuclear warhead tests, an effort to find an offramp from the escalating rhetoric, CNN has reported.

Some Democratic lawmakers have urged Trump to work toward replacing the treaty, and there is fresh urgency after Trump’s and Putin’s remarks about testing.

But other lawmakers, and some experts, argue that Trump shouldn’t extend the deal.

“New START confines the US to 2011 levels of deployed nuclear weapons so if you are confident in having limits according to a world that does not exist anymore then an extension is fine,” said Frank Miller, a principal at the Scowcroft Group who worked for decades on nuclear policy and arms control at the Pentagon. “But the current agreement stops the US from uploading – which is putting more warheads on our missiles to cover China and Russia simultaneously – and takes the wind out of the sails of modernization.”

There are some concerns about the US intelligence community maintaining an accurate assessment of Russia’s nuclear arsenal if the treaty is no longer intact.

“When you no longer have treaty no longer have the legal requirement to monitor compliance on the treaty it is possible that US confidence in what Russia is doing slowly erodes over time,” said Jon Wolfsthal, the director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists.

Complicating the picture of US and Russia negotiations is Trump’s interest in potentially including China in a three-party deal.

It is an idea that his administration actively worked towards during his first term.

Trump administration officials at that time believed China might effectively engage if the US and Russia agreed to a yearlong freeze on new warhead production and the deployment of nuclear warheads, one former official explained. China was also starting to talk to the US about the subject, even though it was at a very low level.

“We believed that when China began engaging in talks about talks that they had resigned themselves to the inevitability of having to negotiate eventually – and we were building the leverage to get them there,” the official said.

But when Biden won the election the Chinese and Russians backed away from the quiet talks. Biden swiftly extended new start for five years, putting the issue directly in Trump’s plate once again.

With China’s nuclear buildup ongoing, many believe the China will not come to the table for talks until it has reached parity with the US in terms of how many nuclear weapons the country has in stock, which is expected to happen in 2030.

“We’re the number one nuclear power, which I hate admit, because it’s so horrible. It’s such a horrible situation if it ever had to be used. Russia’s second, China’s a distant third, but they’ll catch us within four or five years,” Trump said earlier this month. “We’re maybe working on a plan to denuclearize the three of us.”

US officials say there is no current plan being actively worked on to drive a trilateral deal.

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