Life will change as we wait until next year for a coronavirus vaccine, experts say
As coronavirus sweeps across the nation, with some states seeing drops in numbers while hot spots emerge in others, experts warn it’s unlikely a vaccine will be ready this year.
Over 73,000 people have died of the virus and more than 1.2 million are infected as of Thursday in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University.
Vaccines to prevent Covid-19 infections are racing through development at unprecedented speeds, with one maker, Moderna Inc., announcing Thursday it would soon begin a phase 2 study for its potential vaccine after getting approval from the US Food and Drug Administration.
President Donald Trump had said a vaccine would be available by December, then appeared this week to back off his claim. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has said it’s possible to have a coronavirus vaccine by January. But scientists won’t know if vaccines can prevent infection until April or May next year, said Dr. Mark Mulligan, director of the Vaccine Center at New York University’s Langone Health.
For now, as state continue disjointed efforts to reopen local economies, the White House will not implement a 17-page draft recommendation by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for reopening America, a senior CDC official confirmed Thursday to CNN.
The guidance provided more detailed suggestions beyond reopening guidelines the Trump administration put forth last month, including specific suggestions for schools, communities of faith, restaurants and bars, mass transit and employers with vulnerable workers.
That leaves it up to state leaders to decide how and when to lift restrictions as health experts predict life will look different as the world waits for a vaccine.
“I don’t think we’re all going to have to stay home for 12 to 18 months,” said epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers, a senior scholar and assistant professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “I think there will be a period where we are able to shift from everyone having to stay home to slow the spread into these case-based interventions.”
That means contact tracing and isolation and quarantining people who could spread the virus.
Vaccine approved for phase 2 trial
There are more than 100 vaccines under development across the globe, according to the World Health Organization.
The first phrase of a vaccine trial determines if it is safe, Mulligan said, and typically takes three to four months.
“That’s actually the most important first question, and then we want to know if it’s tolerated well and if it produces an antibody response that might be protective after those first three or four months,” he said.
“You go on to the question: Does it protect? And that’ll take several months as well,” he added. “I do really think we’re talking about getting through to the end of the year and into early next year before we would have a definitive answer.”
Moderna’s candidate was the first US vaccine to start clinical trials in the United States after receiving a green light from the FDA in early March.
Phase 2 of Moderna’s study will include 600 participants, the company said, up from the 45 volunteers in phase 1. Participants older than 55 will be enrolled in phase 2, Moderna said.
Vaccine clinical trials involve three phases, per the CDC. The first examines safety, while the second expands the number of participants. In the third phase, the vaccine is given to even more people and tested for effectiveness.
Moderna — which has never brought a product to market — is now finalizing the protocol for the study’s phase 3, which could begin in early summer, the company said in a news release.
In an investor call Thursday morning, Moderna said the first batches of the vaccine are expected to be manufactured in July, with a goal of manufacturing up to 1 billion doses a year.
At least one other vaccine by another maker is in phase 2, and several others are doing simultaneous phase 1 and phase 2 trials.
White House rejects CDC reopening guidelines
Meantime, it became clear the White House will not implement the CDC’s recommendations, even after the agency asked for them, the senior CDC official told CNN Wednesday night.
The White House’s decision to not use the guidance was first reported by The Associated Press.
Trump’s guidelines for reopening “made clear that each state should open up in a safe and responsible way based on the data and response efforts in those individual states,” an official with the White House Coronavirus Task Force told CNN.
States that implemented shutdowns have seen plateaus or slower declines than expected in the number of coronavirus cases, particularly compared with other countries where stricter social distancing measures and shutdowns cut down cases faster, per data from Johns Hopkins.
“We’re seeing it gradually decline. We’d like to see a steeper, faster, decline, but this is where we are,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday, expressing his own frustration. “It’s a painfully slow decline, but it’s better than the numbers going the other way.”
The slower declines illustrate the weaknesses in America’s social distancing measures, which have been hindered by exceptions in stay-home orders, a haphazard federal response and struggles with testing, contact tracing and quarantines.
More than 40 states are partially reopening and lifting stay-at-home restrictions. But none of them have met the White House’s guidelines on reopening, according to Rivers, who spoke before a House Appropriations Subcommittee on Wednesday.
“The first is to see the number of new cases decline for at least two weeks, and some states have met that criteria,” Rivers said. “But there are three other criteria and we suggest they should all be met.”
They include having enough resources to conduct contact tracing on new cases, enough diagnostic testing to test everybody with Covid-like symptoms and “enough health care system capacity to treat everyone safely.”
And with states reopening, it could be weeks before we understand the full impact of loosening restrictions.
Here’s where all 50 states stand on reopening
Blood thinners could help save patients’ lives
As experts work to discover what treatment options may exist, a new study finds blood thinners could play a crucial role in treating seriously ill coronavirus patients.
Some patients hospitalized with coronavirus develop blood clots throughout the body, complicating treatment. The findings from a team at Mount Sinai Hospital could help with the problem that has shocked health care workers treating those affected by the virus.
The team is running experiments to see which anticoagulants work best and at which doses. “The patients who received anticoagulants did better than those who didn’t,” said Dr. Valentin Fuster, physician-in-chief of The Mount Sinai Hospital.
“This has implications already. People, I believe, should treat these patients with antithrombotics,” he added.
The findings are not clear enough yet to make solid recommendations. The team noted that patients who were already severely ill were more likely to be given the blood thinners.
Pentagon’s considering a ban on survivors
For those who contract Covid-19, the recovery process can be long and arduous, with reports of shortness of breath and other complications weeks after testing negative.
Due to little understanding of the virus’s long-term effects, a defense official said, the Pentagon is considering guidance banning new military recruits who have been hospitalized for Covid-19.
There’s concern potential recruits who have been hospitalized may need further medical assessments, the official said, but the policy would not apply for those who obtain a waiver.
Department of Defense medical waivers are required for various medical conditions, including heart disease and loss of vision. The fact that sailors on the USS Theodore Roosevelt are still testing positive weeks after the coronavirus outbreak on the ship is underlining the need to solve the medical mystery of why some people carry the virus but have no symptoms and may continue to test negative, Navy officials said.
With the military living and operating in close quarters, with sailors on ships at sea for months, testing and understating of the virus is a priority to ensure units can deploy safely.
