The NBA can’t risk a foul as it returns to its most important overseas market

By Chris Lau, Fred He, CNN

Hong Kong (CNN) — As soon as he learned the NBA was returning to China, diehard fan Buke Liu scrambled to get his hands on tickets, paying almost a thousand dollars – a price you might expect for an NBA Finals game – for a ticket to a preseason match-up.

One of America’s most successful sporting exports, the NBA is hugely popular in China, and a rare cultural touchpoint between two nations increasingly seen as geopolitical rivals.

For Liu, and many Chinese fans, it’s been a long wait to go to a game. NBA teams, packed with global stars, have effectively been banned from setting foot in one of basketball’s largest overseas markets since 2019, following a political firestorm that drew the ire of Beijing.

And the pent-up demand has made seats at this weekend’s Phoenix Suns – Brooklyn Nets preseason matches particularly hard to come by. The teams play on Friday and Sunday at The Venetian Hotel in Macao, the glitzy gambling hub in southern China known for its casino-powered entertainment.

Liu forked out $980 to a scalper for his seat at the Sunday game and access to fan activities. Tickets to see the same teams face each other in Phoenix for the Suns’ home game in January are on sale for as little as $15, but the university student has no regrets about paying top dollar for his tickets.

“It’s worth it. They are playing in China,” the Suns fan told CNN. “I am very happy about the return of the NBA China games because it allows (Chinese) fans … to watch the games in person.”

The return, after a six-year absence, packs more than just fanfare: it bears symbolic significance. In 2019, a social media post from then Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey in support of Hong Kong protesters angered Beijing, culminating in televised games being pulled and sponsors in China severing ties with the league.

While NBA games have gradually returned to state-owned television and commercial activities have slowly trickled back over the years, Chinese fans being able to see players in person once again marks the culmination of the comeback.

Ticketing revenue, merchandise sales and sponsorship opportunities, backed by a massive fanbase which spends big without batting an eyelid, are what the NBA stands to gain from its return to the country, where basketball is booming among its population of 1.4 billion, experts and insiders tell CNN.

But greater opportunities also come with greater risks, Paul Argenti, professor of corporate communication at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business, told CNN, cautioning that the NBA will now have to tread carefully to avoid the tiniest misstep.

“It’s a thaw, but it’s also a test of how far the NBA and Chinese authorities are willing to rebuild ties,” he said.

Tapping into the vastly lucrative Chinese market and playing by Beijing’s rules can be a perilous tightrope for international brands, like the NBA – especially when it comes to issues that clash with their corporate values.

“One misstep by a player or a coach, (an) offhand remark like the one Daryl (Morey) made, could reignite those tensions,” said Argenti.

Too big to walk away from

The Chinese market has plenty to offer, especially at a time when the league is exploring opportunities beyond the fanbase back home. The NBA’s TV ratings in the US have declined slightly over recent years – though, according to the league, Game 7 of the 2025 Finals series recorded the biggest TV audience for a single Finals game in six years.

David Carter, adjunct professor at USC Marshall School of Business, told CNN that the global market can be “vital” for growing revenue.

“Any concentrated focus on China, one that is successfully positioned and rolled out, should enable the NBA to drive this revenue and franchise value growth,” he said.

The NBA’s popularity in China exploded after Yao Ming was drafted by the Houston Rockets as the No. 1 pick in 2002. Before the 2019 fallout, nearly 500 million people, more than a third of China’s population, were tuning in to watch the league’s content, according to an estimate by Chinese social media giant Tencent, which currently holds the league’s digital broadcasting rights.

In 2019, NBA deputy commissioner Mark Tatum told Reuters an estimated 300 million people in China played the sport. That number has likely climbed since then, with viral videos on Chinese social media showing how the love for the sport has spread to rural areas, sparking huge rivalries in village tournaments. The game has also inspired the popular reality show Dunk of China, which featured former NBA players Jeremy Lin and Stephon Marbury coaching skilled amateur players.

The value of NBA China, the arm of the league that manages all its operations in the Greater China region, is estimated at approximately $5 billion, according to an analysis commissioned by ESPN in 2022.

“China is the NBA’s most important market outside of the United States, with hundreds of millions of fans, huge media rights sponsorship potential,” said Dartmouth professor Argenti. “Walking away is never going to be a long-term option.”

Some of the biggest names in the NBA have already taken steps before the league to reconnect with their Chinese fans in person. LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokić toured China to promote sneakers earlier this year.

NBA players are also popping up on a range of Chinese social media platforms – from the X-like Weibo to Douyin, China’s version of TikTok – to share snippets of their lives and maximize their exposure to Chinese fans.

Matthew Spalter, chief operating officer at East Goes Global, an agency that specializes in helping localize social media content for a Chinese audience, said his company has been helping at least 10 NBA players and one third of all teams to formulate marketing strategies to break into the Chinese market.

“We’ve never seen the demand higher than we’ve seen since really diving into sports,” Spalter said. “It’s like an open pool of opportunity.”

Walking on eggshells

Before the relationship turned sour, the NBA was warmly welcomed in China, where it regularly staged games. But it took just one comment to jeopardize the seemingly friendly dynamic.

Andrew Spalter, CEO at East Goes Global, says his company prepares clients for sensitive questions that come their way.

“We simply ask them high-level questions,” he said, adding that they would advise clients not to talk about things they would normally avoid in public.

But the reality is more nuanced.

Argenti said the NBA’s comeback is a masterclass in how to navigate the Chinese market amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

But he warns that things could get more complicated again in President Donald Trump’s second term.

“They’ve (got) trouble at home and trouble abroad because, if they get it wrong, Trump will amplify it, make it worse than it already is,” said Argenti. “That makes it even more of a tightrope.”

The-CNN-Wire
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