What happens if a hurricane makes landfall while the government is shut down

By Andrew Freedman, Gabe Cohen, CNN

(CNN) — The two massive tropical systems swirling off the Southeast coast are a stark reminder that the potential government shutdown looms during the middle of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Weather forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and disaster response specialists at the Federal Emergency Management Agency are planning to keep working during the shutdown — as has been the case in previous shutdowns — but a lapse in government funding is still likely to disrupt storm preparedness and response efforts for hurricanes and other disasters, experts told CNN.

Both NOAA and FEMA are entering the shutdown in weakened states, having shed experienced staff since the start of the Trump administration. At the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA, managers are working to plug gaps in staffing by hiring new forecasters and moving some meteorologists to particularly short-staffed offices.

The hiring process, however, is proving to be agonizingly slow, with the first job offers for several dozen electronic technicians, meteorologists and hydrologists either just out the door or soon to go out, depending on the position. Once hired, it will take months to train new staff, and there won’t be enough of them to make up for all the experienced people the agency lost, either.

A shutdown would most likely slow down hiring further.

The weather forecasting agency has less than 4,000 employees for the first time in decades, having lost more than 560 people to layoffs, early retirement incentives and other Trump administration programs aimed at shrinking the size of the federal government.

This has left some local NWS forecast offices without enough staff to accomplish twice-daily weather balloon launches and operate 24/7.

But the agency has enough staff to accurately predict tropical storms and hurricanes, said a NOAA official who spoke to CNN on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

In the case of Tropical Storm Imelda, the official said the agency is deploying staff to coastal forecast offices in the path of the storm to help them handle the increased workload.

Typically during government shutdowns, most forecasters and technicians at the NWS are exempted from being furloughed — or put on unpaid leave — and that is expected to be the case should this one occur, the official stated.

The crews that fly and maintain the agency’s hurricane hunter research aircraft are typically exempted as well, they said, so those flights that are aimed at improving forecast accuracy would also continue.

However, while NOAA has submitted its shutdown plan to the White House Office of Management and Budget, it has not yet heard which parts of the agency will be allowed to continue to operate.

Another NOAA official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, told CNN this seemed to be unusually late planning for a shutdown that appears imminent.

“It is unusual that we don’t have any guidance at this point, I think it’s fair to say it’s remarkable,” they said.

NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster said only that the agency’s “products and services” would continue through the shutdown, but she offered no further details given a lack of details from OMB.

Staff working during the shutdown would not be getting paid, making a longer term shutdown even more painful.

Many employees who operate NOAA’s satellites would also be exempted from being furloughed, the second NOAA official said. “We’re an information agency, you’ve got to have information flowing.”

They said in all likelihood storm forecasts would not suffer during a shutdown, but they could not say the same thing about storm response efforts, given FEMA’s personnel losses and shakeups in leadership.

“We’re the ones that tell them it’s coming, FEMA’s the ones who help them survive,” the official said. “I think the real problem will be the response.”

Doubts that FEMA’s up to the task

At FEMA, officials are anxiously waiting to see how the administration will handle key tasks — like deploying teams to disaster zones — if a government shutdown hits. With morale already battered, the workforce shrinking and the agency’s future uncertain, a shutdown could push FEMA dangerously close to the edge.

Most FEMA staff are paid through the Disaster Relief Fund, shielding them from a shutdown, and leaders can recall furloughed workers for disaster response. But the backbone of the agency — its administrative and support teams at headquarters and regional offices — could be sidelined or forced to work without pay until the standoff ends.

If the White House narrows the definition of “essential staff,” the agency could lose even more workers during a shutdown — on top of the steep losses from layoffs and buyouts this year, which have already cost FEMA about a third of its full-time staff by some estimates, including many veteran leaders.

Deanne Criswell, who led FEMA under President Biden and prepared the agency for several shutdown close calls, said a shutdown would likely leave far fewer people in leadership and support roles to guide the disaster response teams.

That’s just one more hurdle for an agency already under extra scrutiny from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who now must sign off on every grant and contract over $100,000.

“It’s going to impact FEMA’s ability to have the resources that allow them to do their job,” Criswell said. “And every one of these subsequent events, like a government shutdown, is just going to push more people to that tipping point.”

If staff are needed in-person but aren’t getting paid, financial stress could hit fast, as people rack up living expenses without a paycheck.

“The staff still working will be less ready due to not being paid,” a longtime FEMA official who works on disaster response told CNN. “Based on the totality of this Administration’s attempts to politicize aid and frustrate career staff, I fully expect a shutdown to be unnecessarily difficult. It’s just not clear how.”

FEMA depends on help from other federal agencies to respond to disasters, so deep furloughs elsewhere could throw a wrench into the whole operation — even if FEMA itself stays mostly intact.

Inside FEMA, only disaster-related work would likely continue. Anything funded by the agency’s general operating budget — including key resilience and mitigation programs — would come to a standstill, Criswell said.

The government’s flood insurance, known as the National Flood Insurance Program or NFIP, lapses on September 30 as well. Beyond this date, FEMA would not issue new policies but would still offer payouts for valid claims with available funds.

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